From the max/min temperature map for today it is apparent that summer is still hanging tough, with much above normal temperatures this afternoon across the state. From the almanac graphic, you can see that although we are much warmer than normal, it can be much hotter at this time of year. In fact, today happens to be the latest date in which triple-digit temperatures have occurred in Tulsa.
More of the same is expected again on Tuesday with temperatures once again well above normal, as you can see on our forecast page. But, the trend after that will be for a gradual cool-down with temperatures closer to normal for Wednesday and actually below normal as we head into the weekend.
A weak cool front in KS will be moving southward and the circulation around a weak tropical disturbance in the NW Gulf of Mexico will combine to provide a more northerly wind flow for Tuesday, but the cooler air will be slow to arrive. As a result, one more day of much above normal temperatures, along with lots of sunshine are expected tomorrow, despite a northerly wind up around 10 mph. Most of the moisture from the tropical system is expected to remain over far SE OK and into Arkansas where a few showers may occur.
Somewhat drier and cooler air will be arriving on Wednesday, along with the northerly winds to bring temperatures down to more seasonal levels. After that, a more NW flow aloft will help provide even cooler air, but also a series of disturbances aloft will be moving through that flow pattern. That will bring more cloud cover for later in the week and the weekend, along with chances of rain.
The longer range guidance remains somewhat inconsistent from run to run and from model to model, but the consensus does support a decent chance of rain, primarily on Saturday. In fact, some of the data runs would support enough cloud cover and rain on Saturday to keep temperatures in the 50s all day long. Our current forecast is not going that cool, as those numbers and that scenario is an outlier, but it does illustrate the possibilities. As you can see on the 7-day QPF map, the heavier rains will likely be further north into KS, but at least we have a shot at some moisture.
After the weekend, our winds will be gradually returning to a more southerly direction so things will start to warm back up going into next week. In fact, looking at the 8-14-day graphics suggest a return to above normal temperatures along with an above normal chance of rain. Given how dry we have been lately the enhanced rainfall chances are certainly welcome.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.