Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Mild Weekend Ahead

Friday, September 25th 2015, 4:02 am
By: Alan Crone

The upper level system currently across part of Nebraska will dive south to southwest today and tonight.   The current trajectory of this system should take most of the shower and thunderstorm activity across the western third of the state late tonight into Saturday.   This means Friday night football appears dry and mild across eastern OK while our neighbors to the northwest could experience a few storms.   We’ll track this system closely.   Even a slight jog eastward could drop this system near the region.   Hi-Res data support one or two small showers forming this morning from southeastern Kansas into northern OK.     We’ll play this one by ear and only add a mention or two if we actually see a shower developing.  Morning temperatures in the lower 60s will move into the mid-80s today along with northeast winds at 10 mph.   We’re in store for a pleasant and mild weekend regarding the weather for eastern OK.   Temperatures will begin in the lower 60s in the metro Saturday morning with mid to upper 50s eastern OK.   Weekend highs will move into the lower and mid-80s with mostly sunny conditions.   The pattern should change again later next week allowing a stronger system to near the state with increasing storm chances and some cooler air arriving.

The system diving southward today may end up across part of Texas this weekend as another trough begins to develop across southeast TX early next week.   A few days back the data was bringing this broadly organized trough northward with increasing moisture from east Texas into eastern OK Wednesday and Thursday.    The run to run inconsistency in the data leads us with a low confidence factor for this scenario.   Northward another trough will develop across the central and northern plains and will move eastward by mid-week.   A cold front should develop and march across the northern plains and the intermountain region by Wednesday and should approach our area sometime Thursday or Friday.   The result should be increasing showers and storms by the end of next week with fall-like conditions Friday into next weekend.   Again I stress the confidence in a portion of the forecast a full week out remains low.    I should also state the difference between the EURO and GFS for the middle to end of next week is equivalent to night and day.  We’ll keep the temperatures well above the seasonal average for next week with morning lows in the lower to mid-60s and highs in the mid and upper 80s.   I’ll more than likely keep the small pop inherited for the Thursday period but the odds are extremely low at this point.  

Thanks for reading the abbreviated version of the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great weekend!

Alan Crone