Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Fall Weather Will Be Hard To Find

Thursday, September 24th 2015, 9:12 pm
By: News On 6

First day of autumn and we have a high temperature of 89 here in Tulsa. As you can see on the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, it was a warm start to the season across the rest of the state as well. In case you are wondering, the normal max/min for Tulsa on this date is 80/58, so well above normal this morning and this afternoon.

Above normal temperatures will be the general rule right on through the weekend and well into next week as no major systems will be moving across the state during the forecast period. Very light winds will also be the general rule, at least through the coming weekend, with a light NE breeze for Friday and Saturday becoming light SE by the end of the day Sunday.

Those light NE breezes will keep the surface air relatively dry with dew point temperatures holding in the 50s to around the 60 degree mark. That means the relative humidity will be dropping off to a minimum value around 40% during the heat of the day. For example, the minimum relative humidity today was 38%, which is not too uncomfortable.

The slightly drier air will also allow our nights to be cooling off into the upper 50s for the cooler valleys, to lower 60s for most other locations through the Sunday morning time frame. After that, a light SE breeze going into the middle of next week will bring those night time temperatures back up into the low-mid 60s for most of us.

However, as you can see on the forecast page, our daytime temperatures will not be varying much until late next week when a stronger system may bring a chance of rain and at least a chance of a cool-down.

Speaking of our rain chances, they continue to be minimal - most of what falls over the next two days should be along or more likely west of I-35.

A weak system aloft is dropping to the S/SW and its primary impact should be over the more western counties. That keeps E OK on the fringe of that particular system, so cannot completely rule out one or two isolated showers - generally west of the Highway 75 area - next few days as well.

Toward the end of this forecast cycle, we will introduce at least a slight chance of showers/storms. The longer range guidance is not very consistent in that regard, so until we see better run to run and model to model consistency, will keep the chances on the low side for the Thursday/Friday time frame. Temperatures should also drop off somewhat during that time frame going into that following weekend.

The 7-day QPF map has a very light precipitation footprint for E OK for that time frame, but that is certainly subject to change in the days ahead. Also, the 8-14-day outlooks continue to keep us with a signal suggesting above normal temperatures although near-normal rainfall.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot