Surface dew points are 15 to 20 degrees higher this morning across north TX into eastern and southern OK compared to yesterday at this hour. This transport of low level moisture will continue northward today into the state. A few scattered showers or storms will be possible as this plume of moisture spreads northward, but the better location for any activity should be confined to the Red River Valley this morning or extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas this afternoon. I’ll continue to keep a low chance for a few isolated showers and storms in these areas today. This probability will not be carried for the Tulsa metro.
Gusty south winds and warm conditions will remain through Friday before a moderately strong cold front moves across northern OK with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms late Friday into pre-dawn Saturday. We’re going to keep a fairly high pop for this period, but may need to draw this back slightly, or make sure we’re communicating the highest chances will remain along and north of highway 412. Lower chances will occur just south of this corridor early Saturday as the upper level wave moves away from the southern plains and the front slides southward to near the Red River Valley. A few strong storms may be possible pre-dawn Saturday across northern OK but the chances for severe weather will remain low.
Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with most locations reaching the upper 80s along with gusty south winds at 15 to 25 mph. Some 90s will be likely south and west. While moisture is streaming northward into the state, fire danger conditions continue to be elevated across far western OK today and for the rest of the week due to the dry fuels and gusty south winds.
Temperatures Thursday and Friday may reach the lower 90s across eastern OK with temperature heat index values in the upper 90s. Saturday morning temperatures should be in the lower 60s with northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph. Model data (ensemble consensus) suggests the highs will range from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south. Sunday and Monday the front will slowly lift northward as another disturbance approaches the state. Scattered showers and storms will be possible Sunday into Monday with temperatures below the seasonal average. I’ll lower the Sunday high in the lower or mid-70s due to the expected cloud cover and possibility of rain across part of the area. This wave will exit the state early Monday morning and we should see gradually warming temperatures again next week with mostly dry conditions.
Thanks for reading the abbreviated version of the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!