Monday Morning Update

Monday, September 7th 2015, 4:09 am
By: Alan Crone

Welcome to Labor Day!   If you’re up early this morning, preparing to Labor, it looks like another warm and muggy day with afternoon highs in the mid-90s.  A few isolated showers or storms may develop into northern OK this morning before dissipating and we may see a few isolated showers or storms located across far southeastern OK and western Arkansas this afternoon from 3pm to 7pm.   But most, if not all locations, across eastern OK will remain dry and hot today.   We are tracking a major pattern change that is occurring this week across the nation.   This will bring a series of cold fronts into the area.   The first one arrives Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning with rain and storms becoming likely along and behind the boundary.   A second front should arrive Thursday evening or Friday bringing another shot of cooler air into the state that will last into the weekend.  We’ll see a slight chance of a few showers or storms this weekend but the chances will remain low.

Very warm and muggy conditions will persist today with highs in the mid-90s.  A few locations to our west could hit 100 if the clouds thin out by early afternoon.   The dew points will remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region and the afternoon heat index values will reach close to 104.   While this is highly uncomfortable, the expected values are not expected to trigger heat advisories this afternoon for the area.   Temperatures will stay warm Tuesday ahead of the boundary with highs easily in the lower 90s.   A few isolated showers or storms may develop tomorrow ahead of the front.   If clouds don’t develop tomorrow afternoon and if our winds exhibit more of a southwesterly component, the temperatures may exceed the forecast across northern OK. 

The front should enter the state Tuesday evening.  Showers and storms will develop along this boundary Tuesday evening and become more widespread into the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday.   A small window will remain for a few severe storms with damaging down-bursts of winds combined with very heavy rainfall Tuesday afternoon and evening.    The second surge of cooler air arrives sometime Thursday into Friday.    A weak system may near the area Friday but any shower or storm activity should remain isolated or to the west-northwest of eastern OK.   Saturday another disturbance should slide across northwestern OK with scattered showers and storms.   This system may have a better chance of spreading a few showers or storms near northern OK.   We’ll keep a slight chance for some activity Saturday across the eastern third of the state.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone