We're watching some rain west of the area that may be nearing northeastern OK this morning as a storm system ejects into the central plains and a weak cold front begins to move in our direction. This area of rain may near the metro early before falling apart around 10am or so. Additional chances would appear by early afternoon and then higher chances later tonight into early Saturday morning. It appears the boundary will become diffuse over the next 24 hours, but the presence of this feature combined with increasing moisture and some surface heating later today should allow for scattered storms developing later this afternoon and tonight. The threat for severe weather is not zero but will remain low. The window for showers and storms will be ending sometime early Saturday morning and then a low chance for an isolated shower or storm Sunday across the east. Highs today will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s with increasing clouds and south winds at 10 to 15 mph.
The overnight storms across northwestern OK continue to move eastward this morning across part of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. These will continue to weaken but may stay up and running for the next few hours. The timing for rain activity will be tricky. The morning showers will take a good run at the metro but should weaken as it approaches the I-44 region. Then additional storms will attempt to develop late this afternoon and evening, scattered in nature, and may continue overnight into the first part of Saturday across eastern or east-central OK. Most guidance suggests the Saturday morning activity should decrease or dissipate by 10am or so, leaving the rest of the afternoon dry. A few days ago data pointed toward a wind shift with north winds and slightly cooler air across northern OK Saturday afternoon. I'm not exactly confident that will occur, but I will keep temps into the upper 80s Saturday afternoon for northern OK and the lower 90s for the southeastern quadrant of the state. Sunday the south winds will return around 10 mph with little impact or evidence of a boundary near the area. One or two isolated showers or storms may be possible Sunday morning but the chance appears rather low.
Next week the mid-level ridge to the west will attempt to expand slightly eastward but a weak mid-level trough may develop to the east or southeast of the state. This feature could remain near or southeast of the state for most of the week while the ridge would keep warm air nearby. A few showers or storms would be possible but the chances appear near or less than 10% at this point. Temperatures and humidity will keep most of next week feeling more like summer with highs in the lower 90s and morning lows in the lower 70s. No major storm system is anticipated to approach the state next week.
Erika continues its slow movement westward and will continue to approach the southeastern U.S. coastal region by late this weekend into early next week. The data suggest this cyclone may be limited in the short term by land mass interaction near Puerto Rico and also by some anticipated wind shear in this region of the Caribbean. Conditions later this weekend into early next week appear more favorable for some intensification as the system approaches the southeastern region of Florida. There remain higher than normal uncertainty regarding the track from day 3 to 5 as indicated by the large cone of uncertainty for this period of the forecast. The intensification forecast may continue to undergo changes this weekend.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!