A strong cold front is moving southward across the state this morning with rain and thunderstorm activity located near and behind the boundary across part of the area. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue for the next few hours as the front settles southward. The threat for severe weather is low across northern OK this morning with most thunderstorm activity post-frontal. A few strong to severe storms may be possible ahead of the boundary across extreme southern OK and northeast TX but the chance is very low. Unseasonably cool temperatures will remain for the day with readings dropping from the 60s this morning to near 70 by the afternoon. North winds at 10 to 20 mph will be likely. If clouds clear by 2pm this afternoon, our highs will shoot up into the mid-70s. At this point, we’re sticking with a high near 71 for the metro. Another disturbance will near the area this weekend with some storm chances followed by another frontal passage Sunday.
We have been tracking a few severe storms overnight ahead of the boundary but the threat has shifted to heavy rainfall behind the front. A few storms may produce some small hail this morning for the next few hours with gusty winds, but the main threats will be the pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall across northern OK. This could result in localized areas of flash flooding for the morning commute. The boundary is located south of the Tulsa metro at this posting and will continue to slide southward early this morning. A few additional strong to near severe storms can't be ruled out this across southeastern OK but the chance remains very low.
Temperatures reached the upper 80s and lower 90s yesterday afternoon across eastern OK and will be well below those readings this afternoon. RAW NAM data suggest our highs will be reached early this morning in the lower 70s with falling temperatures into the 60s for most of the day. We'll keep a high of 71 on the map for the Tulsa metro but most of the day will reside in the 60s. North winds at 10 to 20 mph will remain for the day.
Clouds should thin overnight. This will allow readings to drop into the lower to mid-50s across northern OK and southeastern Kansas before moving back into the lower 80s with sunshine Thursday afternoon. The front currently moving southward this morning will attempt to retreat as a warm front Thursday and Friday. The data this morning unfortunately did not remain consistent from previous runs regarding this scenario and the impact on the weekend. A weak upper level disturbance may move across the state Friday evening and Saturday. We'll need to include some storm chances not only Friday but also Saturday to account for this possibility, but the chances will remain rather low and mainly confined to the east-central and far northeastern sections of the state until confidence increases in the weekend pattern.
Sunday another surface front is expected to slide southward into the state by midday to afternoon. A few storms should develop along this boundary. Our pops will remain from 30 to 40% for this period. Highs will top out in the lower to mid-80s.
Next week appears rather benign regarding any big disturbances or storm systems near the area. We'll see slowly increasing temperatures with a return of southerly surface flow for the middle of the week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!