Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Increasing Storm Chances

Monday, August 17th 2015, 4:00 am
By: Alan Crone

Storm chances will be increasing over the next few days as a strong system moves across the central portion of the country. Temperatures today will move into the lower or mid-90s along with south winds at 10 to 15 mph. A strong cold front will move across the region early Wednesday with some rain and cooler temperatures the region.  A modest rebound will occur for the end of the week.   But temperatures are still expected to remain near or below seasonal averages.   

WARN Interactive Radar

Temperatures this weekend moved into the lower to mid-90s with increasing humidity Sunday afternoon.   Pleasant conditions this morning continue with temperatures in the lower to mid-70s. Highs are expected into the lower or mid-90s this afternoon along with sunshine and a few clouds.   A weak disturbance will spread a few isolated showers or storms across extreme eastern Oklahoma or western Arkansas. This activity will remain very isolated but we’ll keep a 10% pop on the map for today.    Our chances for showers and storms across the northern third of the state will increase later tonight and early Tuesday.

Our mid-level ridge of high pressure is centered to the west this morning as a strong upper level system across Canada begins diving southward into the United States.   This should strong mid-level trough will eventually push a cold front southward into Oklahoma on Tuesday night and Wednesday.   Before this occurs, a lead disturbance rotating around the base of the trough will move across our area late tonight and Tuesday morning.   The result will be an increase of shower and thunderstorm activity for part of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas as Tuesday morning and continuing Tuesday midday.   As the main upper level system moves across the central U.S. Tuesday afternoon and evening, a surface cold front will enter northern Oklahoma and progressed southward Wednesday.   Showers and storms will become more likely along and behind this boundary.  A few severe storms may be possible Tuesday afternoon and night but the probability for severe weather will remain low.   The increasing low-level moisture suggests that pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be a possibility with this system. This means some areas could receive localized flooding or draining issues, but this should remain fairly isolated.

Wednesday could remain in the 70s for daytime highs.   Readings Thursday through the end of the week will slowly warm up, but should remain below seasonal averages.  We may see another system approaching by the end of the week with a slight chance of a shower or tow Friday.   A weak surface front may cross the area Sunday with a few storms.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone