Once again we are tracking a few showers and thunderstorms this morning located across southwestern Missouri. A few of these could develop near or clip extreme northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, but the chance appears very low. A weak boundary is still located across northern OK this morning roughly along the highway 412 corridor regions. Northeast winds are located north of this boundary with temps in the 70s. South winds and lower 80s are confined to the south of the front at this hour across most of southern and east-central OK. The presence of this stationary front is interesting and could still be a focus for a few storms later today across the northwestern part of the state, but the growing mid-level ridge and warm air aloft should preclude this from occurring.
Our main issue will continue to be the oppressive heat building across the state over the next 48 to 60 hours. A mid-level ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the Oklahoma and Texas atmosphere. This sinking and compressing air will allow surface temperatures to move into the upper 90s with some triple digits across eastern Oklahoma today. Significant low-level moisture in the form of 70+ degree dew point temperatures, combined with our lush and green vegetation, will continue to produce temperature heat index values ranging from 105 to near 114 through the weekend. Our friends at the National Weather Service will continue to issue heat advisories and excessive heat warnings for portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Dew points may mix-out slightly this weekend.
Temperatures in Tulsa Metro should reach triple digits for the first time this summer either today or this weekend. Temperature heat index values today and this weekend maybe from 110 to 114 near the metro.
Most data continue to support the mid-level Ridge flattening Sunday night and Monday morning. This will allow a weak surface boundary to move southward and enter northern Oklahoma early Monday morning. Some shower and thunderstorm activity may be able to develop behind this boundary as it approaches part of northern Oklahoma. The exact coverage of thunderstorm activity may be limited by a layer of warm air aloft ahead of the approaching boundary. Because of this negative factor, we will keep our precipitation chance at only 10% for late Sunday night into Monday morning. There will be a possibility that this chance of precipitation will increase in subsequent forecast updates, but not by much.
This morning's data also supports the mid-level Ridge retro- grading, or moving westward, for most of next week. This is highly unusual for the early part of August and will allow the surface boundary to penetrate southward across part of Oklahoma early next week. If this scenario does occur, our wind would change direction from the southwest to the northeast Monday and allow some “not as hot air” to move into northern Oklahoma early next week. This means temperatures would be in the lower 90s for afternoon highs with morning lows in the 70s for the middle to end of next week.
Please remain aware of the oppressive and building heat today through the weekend and remain hydrated with plenty of water. Heat exhaustion can occur quickly in these conditions.
Thank you for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog. Have a great day!