What few showers/storms that occurred late yesterday did produce some localized heavy rainfall as you can see on the 24 hour rainfall map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. For later tonight, there will be another chance of a few showers/storms forming, but they will be very localized and should be confined to the far NE counties. After that, our rain chances will be in the slim to none category as we go through the weekend and into next week. Cannot rule out an isolated storm or two over the higher terrain of E OK or into Arkansas, but the chances are minimal.
The rains we have enjoyed so far this summer have certainly helped keep the heat at bay although the heat index has been dangerously high at times and that will be the case through the weekend as well. The combination of heat and humidity will push the heat index up into the 105-112 range over the next few days which is in the dangerous category once again. Notice the max/min temperature map for today and also the max heat index map for today and you can see those levels are already being reached for some locations.
Of interest regarding the max/min temperature map is the triple digits again today for locations south of I-40 but not further north. The reason for that is evident when we examine the rainfall over the last 30 days which shows that those areas have largely missed out on the heavier rainfall that occurred further north. The much wetter conditions further north absorbs more of the suns energy by evaporating soil moisture or being absorbed by the greener vegetation whereas the much drier conditions further south do not have that advantage. Thus, higher temperatures are located where it is the driest.
In the days ahead, lots of sunshine will help to hasten the drying further north and for that reason our first triple digit days of the year for Tulsa are expected as you can see on our forecast page. Another contributing factor will be a ridge of high pressure aloft building over the state which will allow for lots of sunshine and keep our rain chances minimal as mentioned earlier.
Fortunately, that heat dome aloft is expected to be rather transitory and the longer range guidance continues to suggest it will shift further west again by early next week. That will allow a frontal boundary to move into the state during the day Monday and the more NE to E winds behind that boundary should provide a nice break in the heat and the humidity through the middle of next week. However, our rain chances appear to be very slim with that front due to a strong capping inversion aloft.
So, with the exception of a few storms later tonight, we have basically a dry forecast in the days ahead, the hottest temperatures of the year through the weekend, but a nice break to look forward to going into next week.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.