A weak boundary is still draped across part of northeastern OK this morning and will move northward during the next few hours.
A disturbance with decaying showers and storms near western OK is moving slowly east. As warm and moist air returns northward this morning, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and north of highway 412. A few of the stronger cells could produce some hail and gusty wind but the chance for strong storms appears low. Also pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall could occur in some localized areas before most of the scattered storms move into Kansas and out of the area. While the focus remains across the northern third of the state this morning, storms may still be possible across part of southern OK later today as the disturbance to our west could influence this part of the state. The chance for activity south of I-40 has a low confidence today. Temperatures will be in a broad range today with some 70s north and 80s south along with the return of south winds near 8 to 15 mph. The weekend forecast features very warm and muggy conditions with heat index values that may exceed 105.
Local streams and creeks will continue to see high water this morning before falling in most locations later today. Some area rivers along the eastern third of Oklahoma will remain at flood for the next few days. Please remain aware of this potential for outdoor activities today through part of the weekend.
This morning scattered storms should continue to develop along the retreating warm front. These boundaries, under the right conditions, can be severe weather makers, but it appears our chances for severe storms will remain low this morning. A few of the stronger cellsmay produce some small heavy rainfall and gusty winds. A short-term flash flood watch has been posted for northern OK through the afternoon.
Temperatures should hit the lower 80s north and the mid-80s south and west with mostly cloudy conditions. But the big blob of rain currently west this morning could stick around for the midday to afternoon period near northeastern OK. If this occurs, our temps could easily stay in the 70s again for the northern third of the region while friends across the south move into the upper 80s.
A mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to develop and center-up over the state this weekend. This will crank up the heat over the region with daytime highs around 92 to 95 Saturday and the mid to upper 90s Sunday and Monday. But the additional moisture at the surface combined with a stout dew point temperature should result in temperature heat index values around 106 to 108 Sunday into Monday. These types of values would support heat advisories being issued from our friends at the National Weather Service. The bottom line: Keep yourself hydrated this weekend into early next week.
The data suggest the ridge should weaken slightly and nudge slightly westward around Tuesday as a mid-level low develops out of the Ohio River Valley and drops into the southeastern U.S. We could see a few showers or storms along the far eastern third of the state during this period, but the chance appears low at this point in the forecast cycle. I’ll keep the warmer readings in place for the middle of next week.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!
Alan Crone, KOTV