Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Friday Storm Chances

Friday, June 26th 2015, 4:02 am
By: Alan Crone

We're tracking a cold front moving southward into the state today.   This will bring thunderstorms to part of Oklahoma, and a few of these may become severe with damaging winds and some hail.   The front will clear southern OK late this afternoon and tonight leaving the weekend with lower humidity and highs in the mid-80s.   Temperatures today will reach 90 across northern OK and the lower 90s across the southeastern sections of the state.  

A few showers may continue to fester along the OK-Kansas state line for the next few hours.   A couple may also develop this morning near northern OK.   But the higher likelihood will occur around noon into the early afternoon period.

The instability and convective energy will be increasing later today as the front enters the I-44 region moving southward into the east-central and southern portion of the state.   Modeled severe weather parameters suggest some of the storms could become severe with an increasing threat of damaging winds.   Storms may form a small southeastward moving cluster by late afternoon and accelerate out of the state this evening.   If you have outdoor activities planned for this afternoon or early evening in these areas, you should remain aware of the weather and make preparations to seek shelter if-when storms approach your area.   The threat for storms will not last long as the front will clear the area from the northwest to southeast this afternoon through the evening.  

Saturday and Sunday the morning temperatures will start in the 60s and highs will remain in the mid to upper 80s.   Northeast winds Saturday will bring lower humidity values across the state.   We should have a wonderful Saturday regarding the weather.   Sunday should also be in fine shape for most locations and for most of the day.   But the upper air flow, a northwest flow pattern aloft, always gives me pause as small upper and mid-level disturbances can trigger thunderstorms in the flow.

We do see a few chances for showers or storms, mainly late night and early morning storm chances, for the early to middle part of next week.   There may even be a small disturbance Sunday night that could bring a few storms to part of the state, but understanding exactly where these trajectories would be the greatest is hard to pin-point with confidence at this point.   Basically we'll start with 10 to 20% pops for these time periods.   Once the confidence increases on the positioning of the upper air disturbances and the possible trajectories of storms, our probabilities may need to be increased.    Stay tuned!   This upper air pattern for next week resembles more of an early June pattern compared to an early July pattern.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone