Friday Storms And A Pleasant Weekend

Thursday, June 25th 2015, 4:03 am
By: Alan Crone

We're looking at one warm afternoon with highs today in the mid-90s along with temperature heat index values nearing 104.  A cold front will near the area later tonight and pass over the region Friday bringing a chance for showers and storms.   The air-mass behind the boundary is expected to support lower dew point temperatures which will lead to a pleasant weekend across the state.   Afternoon highs are expected in the mid-80s this weekend along with dry and sunny conditions.   The upper air flow will remain from the northwest to southeast over the area through most of next week.   This means we may see a few additional storm chances at times, including Monday night into Tuesday morning.    Another storm system and cold front will be nearing the area by the second half of next week.

Temperatures this morning remain in the mid to upper 70s with light south winds.   Wind speeds will increase from 10 to 18 mph today from the southwest in advance of the cold front that will remain across central Kansas for most of the day.   Late tonight the boundary will slide southward.   A few showers or thunderstorms are expected to move from southeastern Kansas into northeastern OK through early Friday morning.   This chance will remain around 20 to 30% and only for a few hours early Friday.   By afternoon, the cold front will be moving southward and additional thunderstorms are expected to develop near and behind the boundary.   Temperatures Friday may still reach the lower 90s but with increasing clouds and winds from the south around 10 mph.   The upper air support will be rather weak Friday but some severe storms are still possible due to the high moisture content, surface instability, and the convective potential energy modeled for the afternoon.   We have kept a rather high pop for the event, but there will remain a chance for a few locations to miss-out on the storms.   Storms are expected to migrate southward later Friday night and be positioned along the Red River Valley by pre-dawn Saturday.    A surface ridge of high pressure will build into the northeastern part of the state with northeast surface winds and drier air.   This should shove the boundary into Texas by early Saturday.   This means our weekend should remain precipitation free for the daytime periods.   This upper air flow (NW flow) can be tricky to forecast, but at this point, we'll not include any pops for the Sunday night and Monday morning period.

Temperatures are expected to return to the lower 90s early next week with slowly increasing humidity values.    We'll keep a slight chance of showers and storms Monday night into Tuesday morning.   Another stronger looking signal for storms appears around Thursday of next week.

The extended outlook may also bring another system into the state for the 1st weekend in July.    Stay-tuned!

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone