Tracking A Friday Front

Wednesday, June 24th 2015, 4:04 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.   We're in store for another toasty afternoon with highs nearing the mid-90s along with south to southwest wind at 10 to 25 mph.   Temperature heat index values will remain near 100 to 104, but should not cross the heat advisory threshold.   The mid-level ridge of high pressure, which is our dominate weather feature across the state, will decrease and re-form well west of the region this weekend.   A trough will develop across the upper Midwest into the northeastern part of the nation allowing a progressive northwest flow aloft pattern to influence the southern plains, including Oklahoma.   A cold front should draw near the state Thursday night and pass southward into Oklahoma during the day Friday.   Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous along and behind this boundary, mainly Friday afternoon and evening.   Temperatures are expected to drop from 7 to 12 degrees behind this system with daytime highs this weekend in the mid to upper 80s. 

Temperatures this morning remain warm with many locations in the mid and upper 70s.   Mostly clear conditions will remain for most of the day.   A few afternoon clouds are expected but sunshine and warm-air will remain across the region.    Gusty south to southwest winds will result in some cooling breezes during the afternoon as highs near the mid-90s.   This pattern will repeat for Thursday before the storm system mentioned above will approach the area.    A small weakness in the ridge is possible across extreme southeastern OK and western Arkansas today.   This means a few isolated showers and storms will be possible around the Latimer-Le Flore Co region into far west Arkansas this afternoon between 3pm and 7pm or so.

Later Thursday afternoon and evening storms will be likely across part of the central U.S. including Kansas.   A few “left-over" showers or storms will be possible early Friday morning along the OK-Kansas state line area but the chance will remain low.    Friday midday to afternoon the surface boundary will be near northern OK and additional thunderstorms will likely develop with daytime heating into the lower 90s.   The deep layer shear is weak but the instability and available convective energy should help to produce a few strong storms with a low chance of damaging wind gusts.   The moisture content in the projected environment should also support heavy downpours that may lead to localized drainage issues

As the front progresses southward, the threat for thunderstorms will eventually end from the north to south by pre-dawn Saturday morning.

Next week appears warm but not excessively hot.   Highs will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s.    The upper air flow will remain from the northwest which usually means an active pattern including thunderstorm chances.   But at this point, the only item of interest appears to be a weak system sometime around Monday night or Tuesday.   There is also another signal around Thursday of next week.    This could change, so please check back often for updates.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone