Alan Crone's Weather Blog: More Rain This Week

Monday, June 15th 2015, 4:08 am
By: Alan Crone

The weather for the next few days will continue to be unsettled with a tropical air-mass entrenched across the state and plenty of storm chances remaining in the forecast.   A weak mid-level feature (shear axis) is expected to develop and slowly influence the state later today through Tuesday.   A developing tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is modeled to move northward across Texas and eventually across part of Oklahoma sometime around midweek depending upon your model of choice!   Both of these features combined with a rich-moisture environment will lead to locally heavy rainfall during these periods.  Temperatures for the early part of the week will remain in the mid to lower 80s.   A slight chance of showers or storms will remain Sunday night into Monday morning of next week. 

WARN Interactive Radar

We're tracking some showers and thunderstorms this morning located near and west of the region.  These developed last night to our south and west.   Some showers and storms will remain for the next few hours near the area with morning temperatures in the 70s but a number of locations will remain dry early this morning.   We should see a break of a few hours around midday before some additional showers and storms develop with daytime heating this afternoon as temperatures move into the mid and upper 80s.  

A stationary boundary currently positioned across southern and central Kansas should move southward later this afternoon and tonight.   Additional storms are expected to develop near this boundary and move near the state into Tuesday morning.   Also Tuesday, the current tropical disturbance in the Gulf will be moving northward across southern Texas and will be approaching north TX and far south-central OK by Wednesday morning.   Most model data support the surface low moving northward across TX and into OK but the exact timing remains uncertain.    The consensus data support a Wed pm into Thursday arrival, but a few of the models support the system nearing Wednesday, while a few support a later arrival Thursday evening into Friday.   We'll spread some pops across the middle of the week and shoot for Wednesday evening into Thursday morning to midday for the arrival.   I should note:   These tropical systems can defy model projections easily.   I'm anticipating changes in the data and you should anticipate some changes in the forecast specifics for this system.

Could this tropical system produce any severe weather other than flooding threats?  Sometimes these types of systems, due to the enhanced helicity or spin in the atmosphere associated with the low pressure area, can produce funnels or even tornadoes on the east side of the system.   Most modeled severe weather parameters are not supporting the potential for any severe weather with this system other than gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but we'll need to monitor the evolution of this low closely as it nears the state during the middle of the week due to the expected environment that should be in place as the storm approaches (high dew points, low lifted condensation levels, favored positioning of the surface flow).   

Weather Alerts

As the tropical system exits the area later this week, will get a break for most of the weekend until another front nearing Sunday night into Monday morning.     We need to stress that the forecast for this tropical system may change several times in the data between now and Thursday.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone