Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Good Chance For Rain Across Eastern Oklahoma

Friday, June 12th 2015, 4:17 am
By: Alan Crone

Today signals the beginning of another active weather pattern that may remain across the region for the next 5 to 7 days.  This means rain and thunderstorm chances will be needed for almost every day through the extended forecast along with highs in the mid to upper 80s.   A tropical-like air-mass will reside across eastern OK through this period providing ample moisture for rain and thunderstorms.   Temperatures today will reach to near or slightly above 90 along with south winds at 10 to 15 mph but readings are expected to drop into the mid and upper 80s this weekend and next week. 

WARN Interactive Radar

Some left-over showers and storms are located near northern OK and southeastern Kansas this morning.   These may persist for the next few hours before dissipating by midday.   Additional storms should develop later this afternoon across part of western and northwestern OK as another upper level disturbance approaches the area from the southwest.   The southwest flow aloft will support several small disturbances moving across or near the area this weekend into early next week resulting in the increasing and daily thunderstorm chances.   Model output suggests a small elongated quasi- elongated mid-level trough (shear axis) will develop directly over Oklahoma Tuesday and slowly move eastward Wednesday.   This will keep rain and storm chances in the area until this feature moves eastward.    At this point in the forecast cycle, this means our precipitation chances will be nearing 50% for late tonight into Saturday morning, then a 60% chance of showers and storms Saturday afternoon across eastern OK.   Sunday and Monday will feature a 40% to 50% probability and Tuesday an increase to near 60%.   Wednesday and Thursday will keep low chances for showers or storms, but the system may be removed from the area by this time.   Even though relatively high precipitation chances remain in the weekend forecast, it does not mean it will rain all day long.   There will be plenty of time this weekend with no falling precipitation.  

The severe weather threat is low but not zero for the next several days.   The lack of deep layer shear and limited surface instability will limit severe potential this weekend and early next week.   A few strong to severe storms are still likely this afternoon and evening across part of western and central OK.  The increased tropical-like moisture in the form of near 70 degree dew points can lead to precipitation loading events at times this weekend.    I should also mention that most of the extended forecast is based on a compromise blend between the GFS and EURO.   Both models suggest the elevated precipitation chances into early next week but the EURO is slightly more progressive (fast) with the system exiting the area.   Some additional changes to next week's precipitation forecast should be expected. 

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone