Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Locally Heavy Storms Into The Weekend, Then a Break

Wednesday, May 27th 2015, 9:01 pm
By: News On 6

"Uncle," or "Mercy," or I would say “throw in the towel” but it is needed to dry off. I could say any other expression that comes to mind with regard to: “I give up!” or “make it stop!" but it hasn't and it won't, at least not for several more days.

As you can see on our forecast page, we will keep a good chance of showers/storms into the coming weekend. Unfortunately, some of those storms will provide locally heavy rainfall amounts and chances for additional flooding.

That is the bad news. Now for the good news, which suggests we will finally get some relief over the weekend and going into next week, but more about that in a moment.

First thing's first though. Notice the rainfall map over the last 24 hours, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Although the rainfall coverage during that time frame was more limited than recent events, there were still some local torrential totals which caused another round of flooding concerns. Now look at the last 30 days, which basically covers the month of May, also courtesy of the OK Mesonet.

Statewide we have established a new record for monthly rainfall not only for the month of May, but for any month of the year, and there is still several days left with more rain in the forecast! Really appreciate the good folks at the OK Mesonet for keeping us up to date on those kinds of records.

As for the ‘official' records here in Tulsa, as maintained at the airport, we are currently in second place for rainfall for the month of May through today - well behind 1943 which had over 16” by this time. 1943 also holds the record for the entire month for Tulsa with an even 18”. Hopefully, we will not threaten that record. In case you are wondering, the wettest month ever recorded here in Tulsa was the 18.81” back in Sep 1971.

By the way, notice the 3-day QPF map and once again the Central Plains, including OK, are in the bulls-eye. Another round of showers/storms now developing in the High Plains will be moving our way for the late night into the morning hours. Fortunately, they will be weakening followed by some redevelopment again late in the day.

Friday will also have another good chance of showers/storms, particularly late in the day and overnight before we finally get a break starting late Saturday into the following week. Thus, just a 3-day QPF map is of interest.

Of greater interest is that it looks like we will finally get a well-deserved break starting with the passage of a cool front on Saturday. Showers/storms should be suppressed much further south by that evening and even further south for Sunday and going into next week. Thus, we should finally have at least several days without a threat of a daily deluge.

Notice the 6-10-day outlook for example which takes us well into next week and it has a much drier signal than we have seen for a long time.

But, the outlook for the summer as a whole suggests we will average wetter than normal, as you can see on the final graphic. If that does verify, that would also suggest temperatures will average below normal for the coming summer months.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot