The upper upper air flow will bring yet another disturbance into the area later this afternoon and tonight with additional showers and storms likely to develop in a few spots. The model run to run has not been consistent and our forecast is based more on persistence and pattern recognition compared to any combination of model runs.
We'll see morning lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s followed by highs in the lower 80s this afternoon along with south winds around 10 to 15 mph. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny conditions will prevail for most of the area for most of the day.
WARN Interactive Radar
Additional storms will attempt to develop later this afternoon and tonight across the western part of the state with a few also in southern Kansas. Some of these will survive into our area by late this afternoon into the overnight hours. We should get a break Thursday midday to early afternoon but the next upper level wave will quickly approach from the southwest by Friday. This will increase the likelihood again for storms into Friday morning with more thunderstorm activity likely late Friday night into most of Saturday.
Saturday a slow moving surface boundary is expected to slide southward during the day with rain and storms likely for most locations across eastern OK. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be likely along with highs in the mid to upper 70s. The front should clear the northern third of the state Saturday afternoon or evening bringing dry and stable air to the area Sunday and Monday. A mid-level ridge may temporarily set up to our west early next week and create a northwest flow around the middle of next week before the ridge flattens. This would bring some rain and storm chances back across the state by the middle to end of next week. The extended ensembles are hinting at a pattern change during the 2nd week of June which would also correspond to a normal early summer pattern for the state. The mid-level ridge will attempt to develop to our west during this period creating a northwest flow. This is very common in early to mid-June and is usually responsible for a number of late night and early morning storm complexes rolling across the plains. Only time will tell for sure. Again, this would be for the 2nd week of June.
In summary we're continuing with our short term issues of morning storms exiting the area but additional storm chances will remain later tonight into Thursday morning.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!