Abundant moisture remains in place and any storms today could produce heavy rainfall over grounds that are saturated from recent rainfall. We're in the middle of another very active weather pattern, including the chances this weekend for strong to severe thunderstorms across the state. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with breezy and humid conditions persisting.
The upper air flow will remain from the southwest to northeast across the middle part of the nation keeping our weather quite active. A powerful upper level trough located over part of California and Nevada will move eastward today and tomorrow. Strong winds aloft are expected to blast over the high plains of Texas and move into the central U,S. this weekend. A surface low will develop across eastern Colorado with a dry-line extending southward into the plains. These features will combine to produce several episodes of strong to severe thunderstorms this weekend across a large area of the plains. The severe weather parameters will remain favorable for all modes of severe weather during the initial phases of storm development Saturday afternoon and early evening across western and central OK before storms form several small clusters and move eastward overnight into pre-dawn Sunday morning across part of eastern OK. This late Saturday evening period will represent the highest storm chance corresponding with the threat of severe weather. Before Saturday evening, there will be a chance of storms early Saturday morning to midday in advance of the western OK developing storms. If we do experience any Saturday morning storms, these should remain below severe levels. This pattern is very similar to last weekend's pattern.
Sunday morning a surface cold front will be moving southeast into central and eastern OK. Additional showers and storms should develop Sunday afternoon and evening along the southward advancing boundary. The higher chances for storms Sunday may reside across east-central and southeastern OK and end up southeast of the Tulsa metro, but we'll continue to keep mentions in the Tulsa metro at this point in the forecast cycle.
The boundary could stall Monday near or south of the I-40 corridor with some additional showers or storms in this region for a few hours before the storms migrate southward into the Red River Valley by early afternoon. This would give northeastern OK a small break Monday into Tuesday.
Tuesday into Wednesday another upper level trough will quickly move into the region from the southwest and we'll repeat the process of additional storm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. The boundary to the south will retreat northward as a warm front setting the stage for more storms, some severe, Wednesday through the end of the next week. Moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible. EURO data support cooler air Wednesday through the end of next week across northern OK compared to the GFS brethren. I'll begin trending the numbers down in this direction.
The atmosphere is becoming moisture laden. Model dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s will be expected to materialize across the region during the next 36 to 48 hours. Moisture will also be “deep" and provide ample potential for moderate to heavy rainfall. Due to recent significant rainfall, flash flooding may quickly occur this weekend in some locations across eastern OK. You should remain aware of your weather surroundings.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a great day!