Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Could Get Interesting Next Few Days

Thursday, May 14th 2015, 9:19 pm
By: News On 6

Depending on your location, another inch or more of rain fell last night, as you can see from the 24 hour rainfall totals across the state compiled by the OK Mesonet. Those rains were not included in the drought monitor released this morning as the data compiled for that particular product has to be in by Tuesday morning.

At any rate, the second map is the most recent drought monitor and it has shown considerable improvement in recent weeks. For example, compare this current edition with one month ago, and even the western counties are finally getting some relief. Obviously, these most recent rains will impact the next edition of the drought monitor when it comes out next week along with the additional rainfall that is expected between now and then.

Speaking of which, another round of showers/storms which may produce some locally heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days, including the weekend. That will be followed by a brief break for early next week before another active pattern returns. As you can see on the 7-day QPF map, another 2-4” of rain should be fairly common across the state, and with the ground pretty well saturated, there will be the potential for some flooding issues as well.

Not only that, but the storms could also bring another round of severe weather for the state. Right now, Saturday looks to be the more interesting day with storms firing out west that afternoon and making a run at us that evening and into the morning hours of Sunday.

In the meantime, gusty southerly winds will maintain very warm, humid conditions through the weekend which will also keep us under mostly cloudy skies. As you can see on our forecast page, temperatures will reflect the warmth and humidity, with overnight lows well into the 60s and daytime highs around 80, until we get a brief change in the pattern on Monday.

A more E to NE wind will cool us off somewhat and push most of the moisture further south on Monday, but it will not be long before the moisture returns along with rain chances and a return to warm, humid conditions by the middle of the week.

For tonight and into the day Friday, storms firing out west are expected to weaken by the time they reach E OK. But, as we go through the day Friday, there will be a chance of showers/storms reforming during the afternoon and evening hours and some of those could be locally quite strong.

Then, on Saturday, a stronger system aloft will bring better chances of storms firing out west during the afternoon hours which will then move eastward for the evening and overnight hours. Those will pose the greatest of severe weather along with the potential for another round of heavy rainfall.

Some lingering showers/storms, primarily for the more southern counties into the day Sunday should be followed by a break in the pattern for Mon/Tue before another active pattern returns by the middle of next week.

In other words, what has up to now been the 8th wettest May on record will continue to be very active with more chances of heavy rains and potential severe weather in the week ahead. In fact, looking at the 8-14 day outlooks suggests the active pattern will continue up to the end of the month.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot