Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Rain, Storm Outlook For Eastern Oklahoma

Thursday, May 7th 2015, 4:14 am
By: Alan Crone

We're in the middle of a very active weather pattern that will remain through the weekend including the potential for heavy rainfall and severe storms.   

A few severe storms are possible this morning across southern OK.  Additional strong to severe storms will be possible later this afternoon to the west with some activity moving into our area later today and this evening across eastern OK.  The greater threat for eastern OK this afternoon and evening may end up being moderate to heavy rainfall resulting in some localized flooding issues.  

A very strong upper level system will be nearing the state this weekend with increasing severe thunderstorm probabilities for the state.   All modes of severe weather will remain possible this weekend. 

WARN Interactive Radar

The main system finally moves away from the region Sunday night with improving weather for a few days next week.   Temperatures will remain mild with morning lows in the 60s and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.  

Operational model data has not been very consistent with short-term outcomes.   A few runs have suggested a few storms developing early this morning near the metro.  These different outputs from the various models leave little confidence for short-term timing and locations, but the main synoptic set-up has not changed.   We can make some general forecast outlook statements with some confidence based on this set up. 

 On-going storms this morning along the Red River Valley should expand eastward across southern OK and north TX.   We'll be in the running for some showers and storms near the metro for the early morning hours.  This morning we'll be " now casting" based off of current observations and radar trends.   

We anticipate another round of showers and storms developing sometime this afternoon to our west.  These will eventually move eastward into part of northeastern OK by later this afternoon into Friday morning.   The severe weather threat during this time period for eastern OK will remain somewhat low, but not zero.   The potential for heavy rainfall will increase overnight into Friday morning.   New rainfall combined with already saturated soils will lead to some flooding issues and a flash flood watch will more than likely be issued for part of the region soon.   

Friday evening additional storms are likely to develop near or west of the region and also move east-northeast into the area by late evening into pre-dawn Saturday morning.   The severe weather threats will increase Friday afternoon and evening.  Moderate to heavy rainfall over saturated soils will also lead to some flooding or drainage issues in a few locations. 

News On 6 News/Weather Apps

Saturday a powerful upper level system will be moving across the southwestern U.S and beginning to influence the state with increasing severe storm parameters.   It appears that most of the ingredients needed for super-cell storms will be ramping up Saturday afternoon and evening.   All modes of severe weather will be likely Saturday across part of the state as the storms remain discrete.  Later Saturday evening a complex of storms will more than likely develop and move eastward into eastern OK with additional heavy rainfall across part of NE OK.   

Sunday afternoon into the evening hours, a surface cold front will eventually move across eastern and southeastern OK with a line of thunderstorms activity producing some severe weather and heavy rainfall.   The system should be exiting the state late Sunday night or possibly as late as Monday morning.    The pattern should support a few days of dry and mild weather early next week before additional storm chances will be needed in the forecast by the end of next week. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and update. 

Have a great day!

Alan Crone