A Stormy Pattern Ahead

Wednesday, May 6th 2015, 5:18 am
By: Alan Crone

We're tracking some rain with thunder across the region this morning along with temperatures in the 60s.   Additional showers or storms will be possible later this afternoon across part of the area, but higher chances will remain slightly west of the region across western OK for most of the afternoon.   Some of these storms across the western part of the state may be severe with all modes of severe weather possible.   Some remnant activity will move eastward again later tonight into Thursday morning near northeastern OK but these storms will more than likely be weakening as they migrate into a less unstable environment.   This highly active weather pattern will remain through the weekend with increasing chances for heavy rainfall and some severe storms. 

The first upper level trough of interest is ejecting into the southern and central plains today and will move northeast rapidly into the evening hours.   Locations across the western third of the state will be closer to the stronger dynamics of the system and severe storms will be possible in these areas today and early evening.   This trough will eventually become negatively tilted as it lifts northeast this afternoon increasing some severe weather parameters across part of western OK and western Kansas.   The main trough will rapidly move away from the area later tonight leaving with the storms weakening as they move eastward into the eastern third of the state.   Not all locations will experience showers or storms later tonight into Thursday morning, but it seems the higher probabilities will remain across the northeastern part of the state into southeastern Kansas. 

Thursday afternoon a few scattered showers or storms will be possible during the peak daytime heating process.   The coverage of any activity will remain rather low.   Additional storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon and evening across southwestern or western OK and move eastward into our area early Friday morning.   The severe weather threat, while not zero, will continue to be rather low with increasing rain chances for Friday morning to midday. 

Friday into the weekend another major upper level low will be moving down the west coast and eventually into our region for the weekend.   This system will bring much stronger dynamics to the region allowing the chances for severe storms to increase across the state including portions of eastern OK.    Friday afternoon and evening additional storms are expected to develop to our west and move northeast.   Model output is suggesting copious amounts of precipitable moisture available for this system resulting in some heavy rainfall.  It's during this time period that some localized drainage issues may materialize in a few spots late Friday night into early Saturday morning. 

Saturday afternoon and Sunday the stronger upper level low will be nearing the state.   A surface area of low pressure will develop across southeastern Colorado and advance eastward across southern Kansas with a trailing dry-line across the far western section of the state.   Storms are likely to develop both days and could be quite strong to severe.   The system will finally be exiting the eastern third of the state late Sunday evening or early Monday morning with some improving weather for a few days next week. 

Temperatures through the rest of the week will remain mild with morning lows in the 60s and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.   South winds at 15 to 25 mph will be likely until a surface front passes the area Sunday night bringing north winds and dry conditions to the state early next week. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone