Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Great Weekend, Unsettled Next Week


Friday, May 1st 2015, 8:56 pm
By: News On 6


It was another beautiful day today as you can see from the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Anytime we can start the day cooler than normal and end the day at or a little above normal at this time of year is usually an indication of some very pleasant weather, and that is just what we have had for the last several days.

But, that will be changing as we go through the weekend, and particularly as we go through next week. Our winds have returned to the SE during the day today and will continue through the overnight hours.

Stronger southerly winds are expected for Saturday afternoon and even stronger southerly winds will prevail for Sunday through much of next week. Those winds will bring warm, moist low level air back over the state resulting in warmer nights and higher humidity levels during the days. Also, the wind pattern aloft will become more supportive of showers/storms as we go through next week and with more low level moisture in place, there will be the potential for some locally heavy showers/storms and also the potential for severe storms.

As you can see on our forecast page, the weekend will be pretty nice despite increasing southerly winds and increasing humidity levels. At least we expect to stay dry, but as mentioned, there will be increasing chances of showers/storms as the week goes along starting in W OK and then gradually shifting more eastward with time.

As you can see on the 7 day QPF map, there is the potential for some locally generous rainfall across much of the state which should help alleviate the drought for the more western counties in particular.

Not only does next week look to be very unsettled, with pretty much daily chances of showers and storms, but looking further ahead into the following week, the guidance also suggests more unsettled weather. Notice the 8-14 day outlook graphics which have a strong signal for above normal precipitation chances not only across OK but across a large part of the country as well. The temperature signal suggests we will average close to normal during that time frame.

Then, a look further ahead with the new guidance that came out today for the month of May also has a well-defined wet signal across the state. Since the month of May is normally our wettest month anyway, we may well be able to say goodbye to the 5 year drought cycle; but only if these outlooks verify. Keep in mind, this also implies not only more rainfall, but at this time of year an attendant threat of severe weather.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot