Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Showers Across Northern Oklahoma Ending By Noon
Wednesday, April 22nd 2015, 4:19 am
By: Alan Crone
We're tracking thunderstorms this morning across part of northern and central OK. These are located near and slightly north of a southward moving boundary. A few of the storms, even this morning, could produce some marginally severe hail and gusty wind. Temperatures this morning remain in the lower to mid-50s with afternoon highs expected in the mid to upper 60s along with north winds. Some severe weather may attempt to develop later this afternoon and early evening across southern sections of the state, but we anticipate most, it not all of this late day activity to remain south of the immediate area of concern. We may get a one day break tomorrow with only a few scattered showers or storms across the area before another significant storm system moves across the state with more thunderstorm chances, including the threat of some severe weather.
The pattern has not changed compared to yesterday morning at this hour. A broad trough is positioned across the Great Lakes with a split flow regime keeping a southern stream low near the Baja. A small but stout disturbance is moving across the region today helping to develop thunderstorms, but the southern stream low will eject Thursday night into Friday with enhanced upper level support for storms Friday.
The exact positioning of our front later today will have a big impact on the afternoon and evening severe weather potential. We think it's going to be located along the Red River Valley. This is even more southward compared to yesterday at this hour. But this morning's showers and storms near and slightly behind the boundary could still throw a curve ball on the outside of the plate. So...here's our plan.
Thunderstorms will continue to this morning near our area and should move east to southeast with time. Despite the early morning period, there remains a chance that a few of the storms could become strong to near severe with some small hail and gusty wind the main threats. By midday to early afternoon, the early storms will be southeast of the metro, and possibly even across far southern OK. Additional showers or storms will attempt to develop across southern or south-central OK later this afternoon and evening near the surface front. A few discrete storms may attempt to develop near the boundary later this afternoon and evening, possibly across southwestern or south-central OK. If they do, these would more than likely be super cells with some tornado and very large hail potential. Again, I think this zone of development will be well southwest of northeastern OK, and out of our viewing area all together. Another area of possible super cell development will be across the western areas of North Texas. A small cluster of storms will be possible with these systems moving quickly southeast out of the southern part of Oklahoma later tonight. A wind and hail threat will remain with any of these clusters.
Thursday a few scattered showers or storms may remain possible as the front to the south attempts to lift northward during the afternoon and evening.
Friday a strong upper level system will be nearing the southern plains with increasing wind speeds aloft. A strong surface area of low pressure is expected to rapidly develop somewhat across southeastern Colorado Friday morning and traverse the northern part of OK and southern Kansas Friday into early Saturday morning. Strong south winds will increase overnight into Friday morning quickly transporting moisture back into the state. Showers and storms may develop in response to this warm air returning, and few of the storms may become severe, even Friday morning due to the strong dynamics with the approaching system.
Friday afternoon a dry line will be trailing from the surface low positioned across far northwestern OK. This dry line is expected to surge eastward to near and east of I-35 by late Friday afternoon. If moisture is still located near eastern OK, very severe storms may quickly develop and race to the northeast with all modes of severe weather possible. Some model data suggest the moisture may be slightly removed to the east due to southwest surface winds by afternoon. If this is the case, our friends and neighbors across extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas would see the rapid thunderstorm development. As of this hour in the forecast cycle we feel it's prudent to keep the mention for severe storms Friday across eastern OK, including the Tulsa metro.
The weekend features nice Saturday weather, but another fast moving system will bring yet another strong looking storm into the region Sunday night into Monday with additional storm chances. Definitely spring.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day. And as always, remain aware of your weather surroundings.