Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Showers, Thunderstorms Possible Across Oklahoma
Tuesday, April 21st 2015, 4:26 am
By: Alan Crone
We're looking at another active weather pattern unfolding for the next several days including the chance for a few scattered showers this morning near northern OK. Storm chances Wednesday through Friday will have the potential of severe weather. Temperatures this morning remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s and will end later this afternoon in the lower 70s to mid-70s for daytime highs.
The upper air pattern reminds me of this past winter. There's a rather large upper level low ( vortex) centered over the Great Lakes region up near Hudson Bay with a stout northwest flow behind this low. The southern stream is moving across the desert southwest with a low pressure area located off the Baja region. A weak disturbance will move into the region Wednesday, with the southern stream low ejecting near the state Friday.
This morning we're tracking a few showers moving eastward across the state. These “hit and miss" garden variety showers will continue moving east through the next several hours. We may be finished with this activity by 10am this morning, if not sooner for some locations. A lot of folks may miss out, but others may not.
At the surface a weak boundary is expected to form near the state today and move south into northern OK Wednesday as the first upper level waves nears the region. A surface area of low pressure will develop to our southwest. The exact position of the boundary will have big consequences on the location and types of strong to severe thunderstorm activity we may experience Wednesday. Currently thinking brings a few thunderstorms near the early Wednesday morning across southwestern or south-central OK. These may produce some hail, but probably nothing more.
Later in the day, with daytime heating and the approach of the upper level vort, scattered storms will attempt to form near the intersection of the surface low and front. This may end up to the southwest of the Tulsa metro, but close enough to keep the mention for strong to severe thunderstorms in the Wednesday forecast. The actual outline for severe weather from the SPC places Tulsa and northern OK slightly outside of the slight risk area with locations to the south included for enhanced outlook areas. This may still change as the exact position of the boundary becomes more confident in the forecast.
Thursday a weak disturbance may still produce some storms as it moves across the state, but this chance still appears relatively low to me at this point. We do have a slight chance for storms in the Thursday forecast, but the higher chances and greatly concern will be Friday.
Friday a strong upper level system will eject out of the southwestern U.S and move near the state. A strong surface low will develop near or northwest of northern OK helping to usher low level moisture back across the central and eastern sections of the state. Thunderstorms will develop sometime Friday across the region and could be quite strong to severe. This system will exit the area Friday afternoon and evening with improving weather for most of the weekend.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
As always, we encourage you to remain aware of your weather surroundings for the next few systems that we'll encounter this week.
Have a great day!