Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Chance Of Thunderstorms North Of Tulsa

Tuesday, April 7th 2015, 4:19 am
By: Alan Crone

Our pattern will be supporting thunderstorm chances in the near future, and some severe weather will be possible.  Later this afternoon a dry-line will move to the west of the I-35 corridor with a slight chance of a few storms developing near and northeast of the feature.   We'll keep a 10 to 20% chance of storms in our forecast for northeastern and eastern OK today.  If a storm forms this afternoon or evening it would be severe.   We continue to think the layer of warm air aloft (the cap) will suppress most thunderstorm activity across the region today and tonight. A strong upper level system will near the area Wednesday with increasing thunderstorm chances across northeastern OK.   Thunderstorms that develop Wednesday afternoon and evening will be severe with all modes of severe weather possible.  This means large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible.   The threat for severe storms will remain Thursday, but the overall coverage may be higher east of the Tulsa metro.

The upper air flow remains from the southwest to northeast across the central plains states this morning with a strong upper level trough located across the Pacific United States region.  A strong layer of warm-air aloft continues to spread across the southern plains states this morning and extends into the northeastern portion of the state.   A small disturbance rotating around the base of the main western trough will enter the plains this afternoon and evening and a surface cold front may sag into far northern OK.  This may help to develop a few storms across the northeastern third of the state.   If they form, they could be severe with large hail the primary issue.  We'll keep the mention of a storm in the forecast for today.

Wind speeds nearing 60 knots rounding the base of the trough should move across northern OK and southern Wednesday midday to afternoon.   Thursday midday to early afternoon the main upper level trough will be ejecting across the central plains with a 90 knot jet streak moving across northern OK and southeastern Kansas.   As these features converge upon the eastern OK area, thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday midday to afternoon in the vicinity of the dry-line across north-central OK.   The severe parameters suggest all modes of severe weather will be possible into the late evening hours but the overall coverage of storm activity may not be very large.

Thursday morning to midday may also support some severe weather threat despite the unfavorable time of day.   A few early morning storms will be likely Thursday before the surface cold front catches the dry-line by early afternoon and moves rapidly eastward out of the state.   Our current severe weather forecast for Thursday will keep the higher likelihood for severe storms located along and east of highway 69 for the early afternoon time period, but we should also remain vigilant that a few “left-over" storms from Wednesday night could still be strong to near severe during the early Thursday time period.

Thursday afternoon as the powerful 90 knot jet streak rounds the base of the central plains trough, the surface cold front will rapidly clear the state bringing clearing sky, drier air and some cooler conditions for Friday, which will qualify for the “best day of the week “award!

Model data now supports a rapid return of moisture across the area Saturday night with higher storm chances persisting into Sunday.   A few of the storms may become severe Sunday.  

Another surface front will move across the state Monday morning.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone