Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Next Few Days Could Get Interesting

Monday, April 6th 2015, 8:01 pm
By: News On 6

It took nearly all day, but we finally got to see some sunshine late this afternoon. Too bad they could not have received some of this moisture and the cloud cover for our neighbors out west where today was more like summer than early Spring.

Notice the max/min temperature map for example, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, which has temperatures well into the 90s in NW OK whereas the far eastern counties were only in the lower 70s. That is only part of the story; notice the relative humidity map as of mid-afternoon, also courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Values less than 10% were common out west and that sharp change to the drier air also marks the location of what we often refer to as the dry line.

The dry line may be an important factor over the next several days as it often provides a focus for showers and storms to form with the daytime heating. It will often drift back and forth from west to east and back again depending on the movement of the wind pattern aloft and the daytime heating.

The ongoing drought and current dryness also is a factor in its location as in a more normal year it would be located further west into the Panhandle.

At any rate, it is expected to remain west of I-35 through Tuesday and there may be enough energy aloft to offset a warm layer of air just above the surface, or what we refer to as a capping inversion. If a cloud can break through that cap, it would quickly become a severe storm and would then make a run at us.

The chances of that appear minimal for now, but we do have a slight chance of a storm or two late in the day or into the early night as that is a possibility.

Wednesday looks to be a more likely time for storms to form along the dry line as a cool front will be dropping southward and intersecting the dry line and there will be a more favorable wind pattern aloft. Also, the dry line should be setting up further eastward on Wednesday.

Bottom line, those storms would also quickly become severe and would have a better chance of making a run at this side of the state. As you can see on our forecast page, we have higher chances of storms for Wednesday and perhaps again on Thursday.

Thursday is somewhat more uncertain as there are indications that everything will be shifting further eastward and that may confine most of the storms to the far eastern sections of the state or even on into Arkansas. That will be followed by the cool front moving through and cooling us off as well as providing a more settled weather pattern for Friday into the day Saturday.

Yet another system though will be making a run at us as we head into Sunday and early next week.

Gusty southerly winds, mostly cloudy overnight skies, and partly cloudy daytime skies will make for some very warm and humid conditions for this time of year. Normal temperature range for today is 69/46 for the max/min and we were well above those numbers today. The next several days will be even warmer with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

In fact, we may even threaten some record low temperatures for warmest overnight lows before we return to more seasonal levels Friday and Saturday.

So, best be prepared for increased storm chances this week and it could get rather interesting by the time it is all said and done.

Dick Faurot