Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Severe Storms Forecast For Mid Week

Monday, April 6th 2015, 4:35 am
By: Alan Crone

We're anticipating another active weather week ahead of us with thunderstorm chances ramping up into the middle of the week.   Severe weather will once again be a possibility.   This is nothing unusual for spring-time across the southern and central plains, but all modes of severe weather will be possible.   As always, you're encouraged to remain aware of your weather surroundings as these systems move across the area.

This morning we're anticipating the return of low level moisture across the area along with warmer air.   This will result in drizzle this morning due to this process of the returning warmer and moist air.   South winds will also be increasing later this morning in the 15 to 25 mph range.   Our morning readings in the 50s will move into the upper 70s and lower 80s with partly sunny conditions later today.   The clouds will more the likely remain across eastern OK until later this afternoon.  A layer of warm-air aloft will overspread the region today helping to suppress thunderstorm activity for most of the area.   A few isolated storms may develop this afternoon or early evening across eastern OK with the coverage being very low.   If the storms do develop, they would more than likely be severe.   Today's chances remain near or less than 20%.

Tuesday into the middle of the week, our atmosphere will begin “charging up" for the potential for severe storms.   The main upper air flow will remain from the southwest to northeast across the central and southern plains with a strong upper level trough located across the Pacific Northwest.

A small disturbance is expected to round of the base of the main trough and eject across the southern plains Tuesday into Wednesday.  A surface dry-line is expected to once again move eastward Tuesday advancing to near I-35 by afternoon.  Locations west of the dry-line will experience near Red Flag Warning fire conditions while positions eastward could see a few severe storms if the layer of warm-air aloft can be overcome.  But this CAP does appears fairly stout. 

WARN Interactive Radar

More than abundant instability and convective energy will be present by the middle of the week ahead of this dry-line.    The chance for Tuesday storms will remain around 20%.

Tuesday night the dry-line will retreat westward as the above mentioned disturbance draws closer to the region.   Wednesday midday to early afternoon the dry-line will advance eastward to near or slightly west of the I-35 area as a surface cold front enters northwestern OK moving southeast.   Most of central and eastern OK will become primed for severe thunderstorm development once the CAP can be broken.   All modes of severe weather would be possible including large hail, damaging wind and the possibility of a few tornadoes.    Wednesday night into Thursday morning the main upper level trough is lifting out across the central plains dragging the cold front southeastward across the state.   Depending upon the exact timing of these features moving across the area, another round of severe storms will be likely across the eastern third of the state Thursday.   All modes of severe weather would again be possible.

Thursday night drier and more stable air would move across the region proving a few or two of pleasant and calm weather before our next system arrives Sunday into Monday.

Temperatures today are expected to move into the upper 70s near 80 along with southeast winds at 15 to 25 mph.   Drizzle is likely in a few spots this morning.   An isolated storm is possible this afternoon across eastern OK.   If the storm forms, it would be severe, but the possibility of storm formation today is very low.

Tuesday morning lows will be in the mid-60s with highs in the mid-80s along with gusty south winds at 15 to 25 mph.   Another chance for a few storms will be possible.  Again, the threat for severe weather will remain with any storms that can form, but overall coverage may again be limited due to the layer of warm-air aloft.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature the higher chances for severe storms.   Lows will be in the 60s and highs near 80 along with gusty southeast winds at 15 to 30 mph.

Friday should be clear and mild with lows in the 40s with highs in the lower 70s Friday and into the mid-70s Saturday.

Another chance for storms will arrive Saturday night into Sunday.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone