Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Storm Chances Remain

Wednesday, April 1st 2015, 4:41 am
By: Alan Crone

Scattered thunderstorms developed last night across the southern half of the state and several storms were severe.   Early this morning, some left-over showers and thunder continue to migrate eastward across the region.   No watches or warnings are expected.   The stronger cells may produce some small hail and gusty wind for the next hour before totally falling apart.   We anticipate windy and warm conditions today with daytime highs in the lower to mid-80s.   South winds from 20 to 35 mph will be likely   A few isolated storms may still be possible this afternoon.  A few more storms will be possible tonight across the southern sections of the state.  Our next system will arrive tomorrow afternoon and evening with another chance for strong to severe storms across northern and eastern OK.  

WARN Interactive Radar

Later this afternoon and evening, another southern stream vort may crank up a few storms across the region.  

After tonight, we'll focus on the northern stream system approaching the central plains later today and tomorrow.   As the system moves across the northern high plains, energy will round of the base of the main trough and move rapidly eastward into the central plains state Thursday afternoon and evening.   Surface pressures will continue to drop.   A surface area of low pressure should develop across northwestern OK later today and move eastward Thursday into the central or north-central part of the state.   Warm moist air will remain ahead of the system setting the stage for some thunderstorm activity Thursday night.   Model output data has been inconsistent on the coverage and location for the best chances, but pattern recognition requires a decent probability for eastern OK Thursday evening.   All modes of severe weather would be possible.

The upper air flow may briefly allow the system to slow down Thursday evening, but by Friday morning, the surface low will eject eastward of the state bringing strong northeast winds and cooler air across Oklahoma during Friday.   A few showers may linger Friday morning for an hour or so, but the showers the Friday morning showers will quickly exit the region.   Clouds will clear form the northwest to southeast during the day with highs in the upper 50s or lower 60s.  

Saturday will be the best day of the weekend weather-wise.   Lows in the upper 30s will be followed by highs in the mid to upper 60s along with sunshine and light southeast winds.    The return flow will quickly arrive Sunday with south winds, increasing clouds, and a chance for a few showers or even thunderstorm Sunday across part of the region.   Highest chances Sunday will remain across the southern sections of the state, but we can't rule out some showers Sunday to the north.   Eastern Sunday morning temperatures will be in the upper 40s with highs in the lower 70s. 

Next week looks quite active again with several thunderstorm chances across the southern and central plains, including the threat of some severe weather.    Welcome to spring.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone