Rain Chances Soon

Thursday, March 12th 2015, 4:22 am
By: Alan Crone

We'll see some sunshine for the first half of the day but a surface area of low pressure will bring clouds and some rain chances back into the region soon.   Temperatures this afternoon should top-out near 70 north and near 60 south.

The upper air flow features a split-flow pattern with a fast northerly stream and a southern stream mid-level trough over the southern plains.   This broad upper low will eject east and northeast Friday as a northern stream clipper moves from Canada into the upper Midwest.   At the surface, an area of low pressure across the southern Texas coastal region will transverse northward this afternoon into the north Texas region bringing rain and some thunderstorms to northern Texas and eventually southern OK.   As the low moves northward later tonight, our rain chances will increase near and east of the Tulsa metro.   Our better chances (Tulsa metro) may hold off until later this evening into the Friday morning period.   Rain chances will increase along the I-40 corridor around the 3pm to 6pm period tonight.  No severe weather will occur.   The surface low may linger in the vicinity of the eastern sections for the first half of Friday before ejecting eastward Friday night.   This will require some adjustment with the higher pops to correspond with the better period of time.   This means the higher chance would need to be spread across most of the day-part for Friday.   Regardless, the system will be near the area with some rain chances.   Daytime highs Friday will probably end up around 60 +/- a few degrees from west to east.  The system may keep a few early Saturday showers across the area before quickly moving eastward.   We'll place a pop on the map for early Saturday morning, but this will not last too long. 

Once the upper trough moves east of the region, the weather will become rather benign for the next few days as a mid to upper level ridge builds across the southern plains.   Temperatures this weekend will remain mild with morning lows in the 40s and afternoon highs in the 60s.   Monday will feature a southwest wind and a mid-level profile conducive for temperatures moving into the mid or upper 70s.   A surface front should move southward Monday night or Tuesday with a 10 degree cool down, but readings will still remain pleasant for early spring-breakers.

The pattern is expected to become active late next week with another southern stream wave moving into the state.   This will increase our rain chances for the end of the week, and a few thunderstorms may also be in the works.   Temperatures by late next week would cool down a few degrees, but no major cold air will move across the state, until possibly next weekend. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog.

have a super great day!

Alan Crone