Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Dense Fog Advisory, Sunshine And Warm This Afternoon

Wednesday, March 11th 2015, 4:14 am

By: Alan Crone

Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Dense Fog Advisory, Sunshine And Warm This Afternoon

We've made some changes to the Thursday forecast. I made a few minor changes yesterday morning, but after a full 24 hours of data ingest, the confidence for a Thursday system across eastern OK will lead to slightly higher rain chances for portions of the area by Thursday evening. The earlier arrival of the system may also allow us to yank the Saturday pops for extreme eastern OK. But let's take em one at a time this morning.

Yesterday was wonderful after the morning fog and drizzle cleared the area. Temperatures moved into the mid-60s from Tulsa west and the lower 60 across extreme eastern OK. This morning may be a repeat of some fog in some locations but more sunshine is expected along with highs moving into the lower to mid-70s today. Wind will again be relatively light and from the north to northeast around 5 to 10 mph. Dense fog advisories are posted for a number of counties across the state this morning. As of this hour (3am) Tulsa County is not included. Please check the top of the main weather page for up-to-date county by county advisory information.

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As posted for the last few days, the main upper level flow will present a developing mid-level trough near the state very soon. A surface reflection will form across southern Texas later today and begin moving northward. This solution has been in the global models for several days, but the faster arrival of the system was picked up by the NAM about 30 hours ago and is now supported by other model brethren. This means we'll be increasing the precipitation chances Thursday, keep a small chance Friday, and probably eradicate the early Saturday morning chance. The exact timing will continue to be re-fined, but a quick look this morning reveals a late-day Thursday or early evening arrival of the clouds and rain across the eastern third of the state. This system may reside near and east of Tulsa with little chance near I-30 or locations west. We'll keep our probability for the Tulsa area around 30% with much higher chances to the east. The system would linger into the first half of Friday with some rain before moving east-northeast as the main mid-level trough moves east of the state. This would bring mostly sunny and mild conditions into the region for the weekend with morning lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s near 70.

Monday, southwest surface winds combined with a favorable mid-level temperature profile would support some mid or upper 70s across the state before a cold front moves southward over the region Monday night into Tuesday, but no precipitation would be expected.

By the middle to end of next week, another mid-level trough will develop to our southwest. The upper air flow will bring another chunk of colder air southward across Canada into the northern part of the nation. While most of the very cold air will remain well northeast of the state, we may see a noticeable cool-down for late next week across the eastern third of the state along with some rain chances late next week.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!