The short term issues involve some fog or light drizzle across part of southeastern OK with temperatures below freezing. Roadways are already wet from yesterday's minor thaw. Slick and hazardous travel will be possible in some locations again this morning but most of the roadways in the immediate Tulsa metro are in decent shape. Daytime highs will move into the upper 30s today with mostly cloudy conditions. A few showers will be possible this afternoon and early evening near or west of the region. Another cold front moves across the area Tuesday midday with some showers or thunder possible across eastern sections. More cold air Wednesday may lead to additional wintry precipitation across the eastern third of the state.
We'll see some more thawing taking place later today with highs nearing the mid to upper 30s. The short term hi-res data suggest some light rain will be nearing the area later today. Most locations will remain dry, but we'll need to keep some chances for showers in the forecast for later today. This morning a small area of drizzle is persisting across far southeastern OK.
Tuesday a strong cold front will approach the area and there will be a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms along and east of the highway 69-75 corridor. We'll keep a slight chance for a few storms in the Tulsa metro, but the higher probability will remain east of the metro, across eastern and southeastern OK. We'll start Tuesday morning in the mid-30s and end in the mid or upper 50s. The chance for some showers or storms will remain around 40 %.
The upper air flow will bring a long wave trough into the region Wednesday. This will happen after the surface cold front clears the state Tuesday afternoon and evening. Colder air will be moving southward across the state as this upper trough approaches the southern and central plains. This pattern is conducive in bringing moisture up and over the colder air across the region resulting in the chances for wintry precipitation. This would occur Wednesday with all modes of wintry precipitation a possibility from rain changing to freezing rain to sleet and then finally to snow. The exact temperature profile aloft down to the surface will determine the amounts and types of precipitation and this information is not known with any confidence at this hour. The faster the process of this transition will lead to the higher snowfall potential. If the process is slower, the amounts will be lower, but the precipitation may be more of a freezing rain to sleet mix. Regardless, there will remain a chance for impacting wintry precipitation Wednesday with temperatures near or below freezing for the day.
The good news is the relative fast movement of the trough. The system will be clearing the state Wednesday afternoon and evening with quickly improving conditions Thursday into the weekend. Thursday morning temperatures would start in the teens and end around 40. Friday and Saturday would feature morning lows in the 20s and daytime highs Friday near 50 to 54. Saturday and Sunday would support morning lows in the 20s and 30s with highs in the upper 50s Saturday and the mid-50s Sunday. After the Wednesday storm system, we should see sunshine and pleasant weather into the weekend.
As is always the case with winter systems, very small changes in the atmosphere can lead to a wide variance of conditions at the surface. We'll be updating the Wednesday system every 4 to 6 hours and changes are going to occur in the forecast. Please check back often for updates.
And…this weekend is the “time change” weekend. We're springing forward this weekend!
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