Tracking A Weekend System

Wednesday, February 18th 2015, 4:18 am

Good morning.   A fast moving wave brushed far northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas late yesterday afternoon and evening producing some light rain across far of the region and even some snow showers across others in southeastern Kansas.   This wave is now east and southeast of the area.   Cold air will remain today with temperatures this morning in the teens and highs this afternoon slightly above freezing. 

Our temperatures yesterday out-performed my forecast as the sleet and ice mixture quickly melted.   Readings this morning are back into the teens.   This means the potential for some “black ice" on a few roadways will continue for the next few hours.   Please use caution.  

The upper air flow will bring another disturbance into the area by Thursday and Friday.   The result will be a change in the surface pattern.   A surface area of low pressure will develop near Southeastern Colorado later tonight and begin dropping south and west of the state by Friday.   Southeast winds will increase over the area later tonight into Thursday with wind speeds in the 15 to 30 mph range.   Our temperatures Thursday will start in the teens and move into the 40s with warmer conditions likely across the Red River Valley region of southeastern OK.   

Friday into Saturday as the low pressure area continues to deepen, moisture will be drawn northeast into the eastern third of the state.   Our rain chances will consequently increase late Friday into Saturday morning, with Saturday featuring the highest rainfall chances across the eastern third of the area.   Temperatures Friday should start around freezing and end into the mid-40s.   Saturday's numbers will also begin in the mid to upper 30s and end with highs Saturday afternoon around 50.   GFS data is much warmer Saturday now compared to the EURO.   There remain some significant differences in the strength of the cold air moving southward.

As the surface area of low pressure drops south Saturday midday, a strong cold front is likely to move across the state bringing gusty northeast winds and colder air Saturday night into Sunday morning.   Temperatures Sunday morning will begin in the upper 20s and end in the lower to mid-30s.   This temperature profile aloft Sunday would support wintry precipitation across the region, but we continue to think most, if not all of the available moisture, will be removed from the area as dry and cold air arrives from the north.   Any moisture that does remain could fall in the form of light snow.   The last run of the GFS lingers the moisture longer compared to previous runs.   EURO is mostly dry.   We have increased the pops for Sunday morning, but this is not locked. 

Temperatures early next week would also remain quite cold with morning lows in the teens and Mondays highs in the mid-30s.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone