Tracking A Weak System Soon

Monday, February 2nd 2015, 4:07 am
By: Alan Crone

Temps have dropped into the mid-teens across a large portion of northern OK this morning due to the frontal passage Sunday with colder air plunging into the plains.   The rain ended early Sunday morning before the cold air arrived sparing the state from any wintry weather impacts.   A robust winter storm developed yesterday across the Midwest and continues moving eastward this morning with winter storm warnings and significant snow totals in these areas into the northeast.   Air travel will once again be impacted by this system.   You should contact your airline regarding travel across the eastern third of the nation today.  

Temps today will stay in the mid to upper 30s across northern OK with sunshine and north winds around 10 mph for the first half of the day before winds back from the southeast for the afternoon.   Some lower 40s are possible across southern OK. A minor warming trend will ensue Tuesday with lows in the 20s and highs in the 50s.  

Our next weather maker will arrive sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening.    We're continuing to deal with a split flow pattern.   The northwest flow aloft will bring a weak short wave length disturbance into the central plains Wednesday afternoon or evening while the southern stream will eject a low from the Mexican plateau region across Texas.   This southern stream system is stronger the northwest flow disturbance, but the trajectory should keep this southern system well south of the state. 

As the northwest flow aloft disturbance approaches Wednesday, a surface cold front will move southward across the central plains and into northeastern OK sometime Wednesday afternoon.   The moisture associated with this system is expected to be meager, but some minor wintry precip is a possibility.   This would be in the form of light rain transitioning to sleet or a snow mix.   The amounts, if any, would be very low.   Model data suggest the best location for some precip may be northeast of the Tulsa metro, but the system will be close enough that we'll need to include a chance for the metro locations.   This probability will be confined to 30% for this forecast update cycle.  The exact timing can't be nailed down at this point in the forecast process.   The main window will more than likely occur from Wednesday evening around 6pm to Thursday morning around 3am or so.   Hopefully, we'll have a higher confidence on a more specific timing later today or tomorrow.

Once the system exits the area, the cool air will stick around Thursday with highs only in the mid to upper 30s , but a warmer trend is expected Friday into Saturday with afternoon highs moving into the lower 50s Friday and into the 60s Saturday.   Another cold front should enter the state next Sunday bringing more cold air back to the area for a day or two.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone