We're looking at one more warm and spring-like afternoon today before some changes bring cooler air back to the state tomorrow. Colder air will follow Friday into the weekend as a storm system brings some much needed rainfall to the state Saturday.
Temps yesterday moved into the upper 60s and lower 70s across northeastern OK with warmer air across the western third of the state. Today should feature warmer air with highs moving into the mid-70s across eastern OK and possibly some lower 80s near Tulsa to the west. Strong south to southwest winds should develop later today in the 15 to 30 mph range as a surface area of low pressure develops across the central U.S. and dives southeast. This feature eventually drags a surface cold front into the state later tonight and passes the region early Thursday morning with increasing north winds and noticeably cooler air. The fire danger will be high this afternoon.
After Thursday, our attention will be centered on Friday night into the weekend. A split-flow pattern will persist for the short term, with northwest flow across the central plains and Missouri Valley with a southern stream upper level low becoming cut-off across southern California, near The Baja as a southwest flow develops over the southern plains. This southern low should remain west of the area but will begin to shear out Friday into Saturday while spreading some lift into the southwestern U.S. Low and deep layer moisture is modeled to increase across the region giving way to increasing rain chances, mainly Saturday, across the state. There has been some concern regarding a small window for some light freezing rain or winter mix early Saturday morning and possibly early Sunday morning, but I think the chance of anything significant remains extremely low. We'll keep Saturday in the “cold rain” category.
Sunday could be a different story. We continue to have a low confidence for the Sunday period regarding the precip and when it will end. The EURO is now faster and not as cold compared to the slower GFS with colder temps. The GFS would suggest some snow a possibility Sunday afternoon near or west of the area.
The confidence is increasing for some cold rain Saturday, but the actual confidence for the Sunday morning period, remains rather low. We'll take another look later today and make adjustments when needed.
Temperatures today will move into the upper 70s near 80 with gusty south winds. Cooler air arrives Thursday, but colder air follows Friday into the weekend.
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Have a super great day!