Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Snow, Rain/Snow Mix Possible By Early Morning

Wednesday, January 21st 2015, 8:32 pm
By: News On 6

Still looks like at least some winter weather possible for later tonight and to start the day Thursday.

Temperatures today were above normal again as you can see on the max/min temperature map courtesy of the OK Mesonet.

Thursday will be cooler with cloudy skies and the chance of a rain/snow mix to start the day. Afternoon highs should be confined to the 40s after starting off near the freezing mark first thing in the morning.

As far as the winter weather potential, notice the second map which is an estimate of the probability of accumulating one inch or more of snow. Obviously, most of the winter weather potential is over the more SW counties of OK but there will be at least a chance of some snow elsewhere as well.

Although temperatures aloft will certainly be supportive of snow, the near surface temperatures are expected to be just above freezing during much of the event with a rebound into the 40s during the afternoon.

As a result, most of the snow should melt into just a cold rain, but obviously it would not take much of a change in temperature for more snow to mix in and some accumulation, particularly on grassy surfaces may occur.

Locations along the I-40 corridor and southward have the greatest chance of precipitation, including snow or a rain/snow mix. Locations further north will see diminishing chances of precipitation of any form as well as very light amounts of what does fall. The counties along the OK/KS state line will probably stay dry or only see a few brief flurries the way things look now.

Notice the 1-2 day QPF map which has all the precipitation over the more southern counties and none along the OK/KS state line which clearly illustrates the sharp drop-off in precipitation chances going north. Also, the QPF map shows the heavier amounts will be well south of most of us and the heaviest amounts into Texas.

Much of what falls in W and SW OK will be snow where accumulations of several inches are certainly likely with some travel problems in case you have plans on going out that direction.

The timing of the event is rain will be falling for much of the night tonight, with the possibility of a changeover or mixing with snow towards morning as temperatures drop into the low-mid 30s.

Again, the warmer and drier near surface temperatures make the determination of how much, if any, snow will accumulate.

By afternoon, it will all have moved eastward and temperatures should make it well into the 40s despite the cloudy skies and northerly winds.

After that, it looks like clear sailing with lots of sunshine on Friday and going into next week. There will be some weak frontal boundaries moving through from time to time as you can see on our forecast page, but those look to be minor systems and temperatures should remain above normal through this forecast cycle.

Also, after tomorrow, it looks like a dry forecast.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot.