Welcome To Winter

Tuesday, November 11th 2014, 4:29 am

By: Alan Crone

Big coat weather.

Welcome to winter. The cold front rolled across the state yesterday and overnight taking the 70s out and bringing the cold air back to the state. Afternoon highs will reach the lower 40s today with sunshine and a few clouds along with strong north winds at 20 to 30 mph. This morning (3:30am) we're seeing some very light precipitation across extreme eastern OK , but this will not last long as dry air quickly moves into the eastern third of the state. The cold air will last for the entire week into the weekend, and may there may another shot of cold air arriving by the middle of next week.   There continues to be a slight chance for some wintry mix precipitation this weekend, but the chances remain relatively low at this point in the forecast cycle.

The long awaited cold air is now across the state. A second surge of cold air will arrive tonight into Wednesday and become entrenched across the area for the rest of the week as a strong Canadian ridge of high pressure builds southward out of the northern high plains and the cold air continues to circulate southward out of the Polar Regions. Temps tonight will drop down into the lower 20s with north winds around 10 mph. This means wind chill values for the kids at the bus stop Wednesday morning could drop into the mid-teens for a few hours.   Afternoon highs both Wednesday and Thursday will stay in the lower to mid-30s with sunshine and north winds.   We may come up a degree or two Friday for the high (40) but would continue to be cold into the weekend.

The data has converged on a sensible synoptic set-up for the weekend but the two models (GFS-EURO) continue to offer differing prospects on the strength of the approaching short wave and the available moisture.

A short wave will drop out of the four corners region Friday and move east to southeast Saturday and Sunday. The GFS is weaker with this wave while our EURO model is stronger with the lift in the atmosphere. This means we'll keep a chance for some wintry precip ( mix) in the forecast Saturday and possibly Sunday.

The pattern and available data suggest we could see another system may be moving southward across the nation by the middle of next week.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV