Warmer by Sun/Mon, Much Colder Starting Tuesday.

All signs continue to point to a blast of cold air arriving early next week and that cold air will likely persist right on through the following weekend. Between now and then, we will have some pleasant fall weather through this weekend and into the first of next week.

Today's northerly winds will quickly calm down this evening and for much of the night before returning to a light SE direction by early morning. Brisk southerly winds can then be expected for much of the day Friday before shifting back to the north by early Saturday morning. Gusty northerly winds through the day Saturday will then shift back to the south on Sunday and become rather gusty continuing through the day Monday. Then, a stronger cold front will be arriving late Monday or during the overnight hours followed by strong northerly winds for Tuesday and a N to NE wind will then be the general rule for the rest of the week.

The impact on temperatures will be reflected in quite a roller coaster ride. The clear skies and light winds tonight will result in lower 30s which means a light freeze for some locations along with the potential for frost. That will be followed by 60s again Friday, 40s Friday night and only in the upper 50s to near 60 on Saturday. Sunday will be in the upper 60s to near 70 and we should be in the low 70s on Monday. Then, the bottom falls out with daytime highs only in the 40s at best and overnight lows generally in the 20s for the rest of next week.

Despite these significant temperature swings, the systems coming through do not have much moisture to work with. We will have clear skies tonight and Friday, should see more cloudiness Friday night and to start the day Saturday but those clouds will be quickly clearing out with lots of sunshine for Sunday and much of Monday. The stronger front arriving late Monday and early Tuesday will have some cloud cover with it, but only a slight chance of showers and primarily for the more eastern counties at that. Notice the 7 day QPF map which has only very light amounts for E OK if anything falls at all.

As mentioned, the longer range guidance also suggests the cold air arriving next week will be slow to move out. Notice the 8-14 day outlooks keep us with a strong signal suggesting temperatures will average below normal going through that next weekend along with little or no mention of precipitation.

Although the precipitation guidance is for the most part dry, the rather strong NW flow aloft that will prevail for much of next week is notorious for producing some surprises. Another wild card is a powerful cyclone developing in the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea which is at least partially due to the extra tropical transition of what was W Pacific super typhoon Nuri . This system is largely responsible for the downstream amplification of the flow aloft over the US that will send the cold air southward next week. But, there are also some indications that some energy aloft embedded in that flow could amplify to a greater extent than can now be reliably anticipated and produce some precipitation. Given the vertical temperature profiles by then there could be some wintry mix involved, a possibility that will be monitored closely with subsequent data runs.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot