Rain Tonight, Ending Later Tuesday....Cooler.

After such a warm October, November has certainly started off on the chilly side. But, having said that, temperatures today were actually above normal although the gusty southerly winds did make it seem rather cool. Notice the max/min temperature map for today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Notice also the rainfall map since midnight which so far is not very impressive.

But, that will be changing as we go through the overnight hours as a cold front sweeps across the state and a widespread area of rain with some embedded thunder will be developing and moving eastward with the boundary. Since this system will be moving rather slowly, rainfall totals should be generous by the time it ends from W-E during the early afternoon hours. Notice the QPF map which suggests the potential for more than an inch of rain. Keep in mind that is an areal average and some locations could end up with a good bit more than that.

The timing suggests a wet night tonight through the morning hours of Tuesday then gradually ending from west to east during the afternoon and it should have moved on eastward out of the state by sunset or shortly after. The heavier showers with some thunder will be most likely first thing in the morning along or just east of the I-44 corridor with those heavier showers moving on eastward during the day. That will be followed by the lingering light rain, showers, and perhaps some drizzle.

Since our day will start off with rain and some lingering showers will extend into the afternoon, look for a very short thermometer on Tuesday. Temperatures should start off in the 50s that morning and pretty much stay there all day. Also our winds will be shifting to northerly as the cold front moves on through during the morning hours, but this is not a particularly strong system. Those winds will be on the order of 10-15 mph, diminishing that night and returning to a more southerly direction on Wednesday. Another cold front will arrive on Thursday shifting our winds back to northerly again. Yet another cold front will be arriving on Saturday and possibly the strongest one of the season by early next week.

This rapid progression of cold fronts will keep temperatures below normal through the weekend and into the following week but this rapid progression also prevents much if any moisture to return. As a result, it looks like each of these fronts will be moisture starved and will carry a dry forecast after the system tonight and Tuesday moves on eastward.

Just how cold next week will be is still uncertain. The longer range guidance is not showing much internal consistency as yet, but the preliminary indications certainly suggest this could turn out to be the coldest of the season to this point. Notice the 8-10 day outlooks for example which have us on the western edge of the coldest air, but that would still translate into some very chilly weather.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot