Stormy Start To The Work Week

Conditions have just started to wind down from our last system as we begin to prepare for the next system. Winds will lighten up tonight but with the already cool and moist air, temperatures won't be able to fall far tonight and patchy could develop among the left over drizzle. Needless to say, if you're looking for improving weather (warmer, with more sunshine) you'll have to wait until the afternoon hours of Sunday. Don't blink though, another system is right on our heels so you'll want to enjoy the partly cloudy skies, breezy south winds and afternoon temperatures in the low 70s.

Clouds will begin to increase again Sunday evening ahead of an upper level wave. That upper level wave will coincide with a healthy surface low and cold front, meaning the system as a whole will have some punch. The cold front should arrive in eastern Oklahoma during the early morning hours. Models are putting it near the Tulsa metro around 7 AM. That could add a little more excitement to Monday morning commutes. We are expecting storms to fire out ahead of the cold front beginning in western Oklahoma during Sunday afternoon and make their way eastward, eventually gathering into a line of storms. A lot could change between now and then, such as timing of the front and how much juice the atmosphere has to work with to produce severe storms. With the front moving in after midnight, we won't have the energy we would get from daytime heating. However, overnight storms can be enhanced by what we call a low level jet. Most likely there will be enough moisture available and with the strength of this system, it shouldn't have any problem producing storms in western Oklahoma Sunday afternoon and pushing them through eastern Oklahoma Monday morning. That being said, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats but we will be closely watching for any spin ups, especially if a line of storms develop.

This system will take its time moving though eastern Oklahoma Monday afternoon. By the time you're ready to head home from work, the front its self will most likely have just entered into Arkansas. Enough moisture will be able to wrap around the surface low that showers will be able to continue through Monday evening, possibly overnight into Tuesday for the northeast corner of the state. With cool and wet weather once again, it won't be a bad idea to plan on hauling your rain gear with you for Monday. 

The system should be long gone by Tuesday afternoon and then things will quiet down again. Afternoon highs will slowly climb into the upper 70s by mid-week, thanks to a ridge of high pressure building aloft. Expect to see more sunshine mid-week as well. Our work week starts off with a bang but it looks like it settles down for a nice end.