Cool Front Arriving Friday Along with Showers/Storms.

Once again, today was very un-like what we usually associate with October; notice the max/min temperature map for example, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. To put things in perspective, our normal diurnal temperature range at this time of year is 75/53 for the max/min. Thursday will also be much warmer than normal with morning temperatures in the 60s to near 70 and afternoon highs well into the 80s. It will also be very humid with minimum relative humidity levels only dropping into the low 50% range as the dew point temperature will remain well into the 60s if not near 70 at times. We will also have gusty southerly winds and a mix of clouds and sun throughout the day.

Friday will start off much the same with morning lows in the 60s to near 70 under mostly cloudy skies and a brisk southerly wind. But, after that is when things start to get a little more interesting. A cold front will be pushing across the state during the day, but is not expected to reach our part of the state till later in the day. Depending on the exact timing, we may see temperatures back into the 80s before the front arrives, but much cooler air will be spilling in behind the front with temperatures quickly falling into the 60s and even the 50s that evening and near 50 to start the day Saturday.

Brisk northerly winds, cloudy skies, and lingering showers will keep us in the 60s for much of the day Saturday followed by some moderation on Sunday when afternoon highs should be back into the 70s. However, another storm system is headed our way by Sunday night and Monday followed by brisk northerly winds and another cool-down.

Of more significance is the rainfall potential with these systems. As has been mentioned for several days now, we have been monitoring the movement of the remnants of what was once Pacific hurricane Simon. The remnants are currently moving eastward across the southern Rockies and rapidly weakening. However, it will be interacting with the cold front as it arrives on Friday so the potential is still there for some locally heavy rainfall. As is often the case with these Pacific remnants as they move our way, there is considerable uncertainty due to the relative lack of data to work with. However, it is these type systems which in the past have contributed to some significant flooding issues and we are keeping a close eye on this one to eliminate any ‘surprises' of that type.

Right now, it looks like there will be a chance of showers or storms along the more northern counties Thursday night, then the rain will become more widespread during the day Friday and Friday night and gradually end from W-E on Saturday. Cannot rule out the potential for some of those storms to be severe on Friday as well with primarily a wind/hail threat. Sunday should be between systems for the most part with the next rainmaker coming our way later that night and more likely into the day Monday. This could be a very wet system as well. Notice for example, the 7 day QPF map which would include both systems. Obviously, the potential is there for some heavy and possibly some localized flooding to occur.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot