An Early AM Storm But Higher Chances Friday

Wednesday, October 8th 2014, 4:35 am

By: Alan Crone

An Early AM Storm But Higher Chances Friday

We're tracking a few showers and thunderstorms this morning across northeastern OK. A few of these may produce some small hail and gusty winds for the next hour or so, but the coverage will remain low. Most of today and tomorrow will remain dry before additional rain and thunderstorm activity moves into the area Thursday night and Friday. This next system may produce pockets of heavy rainfall leading to some minor street or low level flooding issues. Another system may impact the area Sunday night into Monday.

The upper air flow will begin slowly transitioning to more of a zonal (west to east) flow for the state while the main trough to our east slides eastward. A weak boundary moved into northern OK yesterday afternoon and is currently lifting northeast as a warm front this morning with a few scattered showers and storms along and northeast of the boundary. This activity will remain sparse this morning, but a few locations may experience a shower or thunderstorm for the next hour or two. The front will lift northward bringing warm and moist conditions across the entire state this afternoon and most of Thursday before our next system arrives Thursday night.

The tropical system near the Baja-southwestern U.S. will begin moving eastward soon. Another wave will drop out of the western U.S. and absorb the left-over tropical impulse. The surface boundary north of the state will slowly move southward Thursday night with additional showers and storms following from southern Kansas into far northern OK by late in the evening into Friday.

Friday the boundary will slide southward across the central OK area before slowing down as the upper system brings additional showers and storms atop the system. The highest rain and thunderstorm chances for the event will occur Friday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The threat for severe weather is not zero, but will remain very low. The system should move eastward after the early Saturday morning hours with decreasing rain-thunderstorm coverage across the eastern third of the state.    Saturday evening appears dry and cool.

The remainder of the forecast is uncertain. Another system may impact the area Sunday night into Monday, but the confidence in the outcome is very low. The EURO is extremely amplified with the system and would result in flooding rain potential for the central, northern, and eastern third of the state, while the GFS has been much weaker. Both models have changed some from their last run. The data seems to be suggesting a Sunday night into Monday morning passage, but this is still up for debate. Needless to say, the Sunday through Tuesday forecast could undergo some big changes during the next few days.    We'll give it our best shot!

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV