Warm Again, But Cooler Weather and Rain is on the Way.

Notice the max/min temperature map for today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Certainly did not feel much like October but at least no records were set. Keep in mind that the normal daytime highs at this time of year are in the upper 70s so quite a departure from the norm. And, more of the same is expected for Wednesday with temperatures remaining well above normal as our morning lows will be well into the 60s and the daytime highs well into the 80s. There may even be a few showers or a storm or two for the extreme eastern counties for the late night and early morning hours, but those will quickly fall apart and move on eastward.

That will leave us with partly cloudy skies for much of the day along with a brisk SE wind of 10-20 mph. That will set the stage for another very mild night Wed night as temperatures will once again only drop into the 60s to near 70. Afternoon highs on Thu will also be well into the 80s along with a brisk southerly wind. Thursday should be dry but that will be changing during the overnight hours and particularly for the Fri/Sat time period.

As mentioned yesterday, the remnants of Simon coming off the Pacific coast of Baja California will be headed in our general direction later in the week and there continues to be considerable uncertainty regarding its exact track and the amount of rain it will bring. Current indications certainly suggest the potential for some significant rainfall across much of the state, but we have seen that before with similar systems which failed to materialize….remember Odile less than a month ago for example.

At any rate, a cool front will be pushing across the state on Friday so temperatures will be falling to at or below the seasonal norms for Friday and Saturday. Cloudy skies should also prevail and right now it looks like most of the rain will start Thu night and end later Saturday. Notice the 7 day QPF map which if it verifies will certainly put a dent in our drought situation. Another element to the 7 day QPF is another system that some of the longer range guidance is trying to bring our way for the Mon/Tue time period of early next week. If that system materializes, then we will have back to back very wet systems, but again that is by no means certain. So far, the longer range guidance is not very consistent in handling the system early next week and it may take several more data runs before we settle down to a more consistent solution. At any rate, will call for at least a slight chance of rain for early next week with the caveat that those numbers may well go up with the rainfall chances which would also bring the temperature numbers down.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot