Some Storms May Be Severe Today

Thursday, October 2nd 2014, 3:43 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning. Today will be a very active weather day with thunderstorm chances, including this morning and later this afternoon. A few may become severe. All modes of severe weather would be possible but the storms this morning will have a higher chance of producing some small to marginally severe hail. The storms later this afternoon are expected to form a squall line and move across eastern OK with a damaging wind threat and a larger hail size threat.   Temps will top out in the lower or mid 80s today before the cold front moves across the area bringing dry and cooler air to the region later tonight. Temperatures Friday morning will begin in the lower 50s and finish with afternoon highs in the upper 60s or lower 70s with gusty northwest winds.   The weekend looks good with Saturday morning readings in the mid-40s and afternoon highs in the mid-70s.   A weak wave may brush the state Monday or Tuesday with a small area of showers, but this probability currently remains low.

The main upper level trough is ejecting into the central plains states soon and this will bring the front closer to our area later today. The main cold front is located well northwest of the area this morning, but a low level jet has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across central and northeastern OK this morning.   These storms are expected to remain slightly elevated with the main threat of severe weather confined to some hail production for the early morning hours.

As the cold front nears the I-35 corridor early afternoon, additional storms will develop ahead of the boundary in a very moist and unstable atmosphere. A few of the storms early this afternoon could produce all modes of severe weather before the storms begin to coalesce into line segments or a squall line of thunderstorms. As this occurs, the main threat will transition to damaging wind as storms progress deeper into east-central and southeastern OK. The actual surface front may not clear the Tulsa metro until 6pm to 8pm but the storms will more than likely be removed to the eastern and southeastern sections of the state by this hour. The front will clear far southeastern OK by 11pm to 1am with the threat of showers and storms exiting the state.

The air mass behind the departing front is much cooler and dryer. This will allow Friday morning temps to drop into the lower 50s with gusty northwest winds picking up at midday in the 15 to 25 mph range. This process will continue to pump cooler air into the state keeping our Friday afternoon temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the eastern third of the state. The Tulsa metro may hit 70 for the afternoon high with sunny conditions and gusty northwest winds!   Friday Night Football will be chilly with game time temps in the 60s falling into the upper 50s by the end of the game.

Saturday morning we anticipate light winds, clear sky, and dry air. This will allow morning lows to drop just above the local dew point temps which would be in the upper 30s. But the model data indicates we should have a southwest or west wind around 3 to 5 mph. This may be just enough to keep us in the lower 40s. Either way, Saturday morning appears chilly for a number of locations across Northeastern OK. The afternoon highs will top out in the upper 60s or lower to mid 70s with southwest winds around 10 mph.

The upper air flow this weekend into early next week will remain from the northwest. A disturbance will drop down the flow and brush the state early next week with a slight chance of a few showers, but the chance will remain very low. The EURO is now also trying to phase some energy from the system along the Gulf coast that could spread some moisture northward Monday into Tuesday. Regardless of the differences in the model data, our forecast will introduce a chance for some showers or storms for Monday. Temps next week will slowly climb to above seasonal averages.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day, but remain aware of your weather surroundings