Storm Chances Increasing Soon

Wednesday, October 1st 2014, 4:35 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning. We're tracking a few showers and thunderstorms this morning along the north central part of the state that will move northeast into the OK-Kansas state line area. Most of the storms will be located away from the Tulsa area, but I can't rule out one or two isolated storms near the region this morning. Our storm chances will increase slightly this afternoon, but most locations will continue to be dry. The exception may occur along the OK-Kansas state line area where a few storms could be severe. The greater coverage for severe storms today will be located across eastern Kansas.    A strong cold front will move into the area Thursday with storm chances increasing along the boundary through the midday to afternoon period. Some of these storms may be severe with hail and wind the main threats. The front continues to slow down in some of the model data. This boundary may not cross the Tulsa area until after the noon hour Thursday. We'll have a chance for a few Thursday morning showers or storms, but the higher chances will ramp up Thursday midday to afternoon as the main cold front and upper level system nears the state. Temps today will reach the upper 80s northern OK and the lower 90s across far southern OK along with south winds at 10 to 20 mph. Temps behind the cold front will drop into the 70s Thursday afternoon after hitting highs in the lower 80s through the noon hour. Friday morning temps will drop into the lower 50s with northwest winds at 15 to 25 mph. The Friday afternoon highs will be in the upper 60s or lower 70s with mostly sunny conditions.

The lead wave in this trifecta of waves ejected across the northern plains yesterday, the second wave will be responsible for today's showers and storms, and the final wave will be pushing the cold front across the state Thursday with the highest storm chances for eastern OK. The wind shear and severe storm parameters this afternoon and tonight will be supportive of super-cell thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes, but the favored location for these storms will be mainly across Kansas and possibly a small portion of Missouri, Nebraska, and Southern Iowa. A few severe storms may persist into far northern OK late this afternoon into tonight but this activity will remain isolated across the northern third of the state later this afternoon or tonight.

As the main long-wave trough moves across the central portion of the nation, the cold front will move southeast and encounter a deep and moist air-mass supportive of thunderstorms. The wind profile aloft will be more conducive to hail and damaging wind compared to tornadoes by the afternoon across eastern OK. The upper air wind flow will become parallel to the surface boundary and this will promote a squall line of storms that will slowly move across the eastern third of the state.    These storms may persist into late Thursday night across far eastern and southeastern OK but will be moving out of the state around 11pm Thursday to 1am Friday.

Friday and Saturday will feature super great fall weather with dry and cool conditions. Friday afternoon's highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s combined with northwest winds and abundant sunshine may quality as one of our better fall weather days in the early season.   The dry air will allow for mid to upper 40s Saturday morning with daytime highs in the upper 70s Saturday afternoon with southwest winds at 10 mph.

Another weak boundary may slide southward Sunday bringing a wind shift back to the state for a few hours, but any showers or storms should remain south of our areas Sunday into Monday.

Temps are expected to warm back to the lower or mid 80s next week.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Alan Crone