Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, July 24th 2014, 4:29 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning. We're looking at a minor break today from the heat with highs in the lower 90s. But we anticipate much warmer and humid conditions to prevail Friday through most of the weekend. Heat advisories and heat warnings will no doubt be required for portions of the state Friday and Saturday, and possibly Sunday. Another pattern change is likely to occur next week and this will bring cooler air back to the state.

An Ozone alert is underway today for the Tulsa metro. Ozone in the upper levels of the atmosphere helps to block dangerous rays from the sun approaching the earth. Ozone formation in the lower level, at the surface of the earth, can cause issues for those who suffer from respiratory illnesses, among other things.

Yesterday’s storm complex rolled across the eastern third of the state and western Arkansas with heavy rainfall and damaging winds in the range of 60 to 70 mph. This complex developed Tuesday across southern South Dakota and moved southeast into Nebraska pre-dawn Wednesday. The hi- res models indicated the complex would weaken and fall apart Wednesday mid-day across central Kansas. By 11am yesterday, the models finally latched onto a suggestion that the complex would survive the trip into Northeastern OK. While I had a probability for some storm activity in the forecast and even the highest chances across these same areas that received the rain, I did not think the MCS would survive into the region. These MCS's can be a pain to forecast. My apologies.

The surface boundary that moved across the area yesterday is going to move northward today as a warm front. South winds will quickly return this afternoon along with increasing humidity values. It does not appear that we'll see any showers or storms today, but this should change by the end of the weekend.

Friday and Saturday a mid-level ridge of high pressure will bring our daytime highs near or even over 100. Sunday the mid-level ridge will begin sliding westward and a major trough will carve out across the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This upper flow will bring a front southward and should clear the state either Sunday or Monday. At this hour, I'm leaning toward a Monday morning frontal passage. Regardless, we'll have a chance for a few showers and storms Sunday night into Monday morning as the pattern change begins. .

Next week the morning lows will drop into the upper 60s and afternoon highs may stay in the mid-80s. A series of disturbances will move from the northwest to the southeast and could bring another rain maker into the state Tuesday or Wednesday. This chance will currently remain low, but only because of the lack of confidence to pick out the best day for the highest probability. In other words, these probabilities could and probably will change before next week. The highest pop at this point will be Wednesday. If the pop holds and verifies, we may see highs Wednesday in the upper 60s or lower 70s.

Yesterday’s high was 93 recorded at 11:22am. The daily average-normal high is 94 and the low is 73. Daily records include a high of 110 from 1934. The record low is 60 from 1927 and 1909.

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I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz. These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone

KOTV