Good morning. Temperatures are in the upper 50s and lower 60s near the Tulsa Metro this morning. We are anticipating very nice weather this afternoon with sunshine and high temperatures in the lower 80s. The next storm system will be brushing part of the state Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Our next better opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly Sunday night into Monday morning across the northern part of the state.
Warm and humid conditions will persist Saturday and Sunday across most of the state. Warm air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere should help to effectively cap convection from forming for most of Saturday across the eastern third of the state. By late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, and upper level disturbance will swing into the central plains pushing a surface boundary into portions of Southern or central Kansas. There may also be a dry-line feature established across far West Texas, western Kansas, and western OK. A few showers and thunderstorms may be possible along this boundary late Saturday afternoon, but should remain west or Northwest of our area. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms or two along the OK-Kansas state line area by early Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening, more showers and thunderstorms will become likely in southern Kansas and may back-build into far southeastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Convective and potential energy will be increasing during this period and a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be a possibility Sunday into Monday.
Early next week, both GFS and Euro data suggest midlevel warming across the southern plains. This may also limit any thunderstorm activity for the early portion of next week across most of Texas and Oklahoma. I do not think this mid-level Reggie will continue for the entire week, but should allow for warm and humid conditions to be the dominant feature for several days.
The data diverges by Thursday. The EURO brings a wave out of Mexico into the southern plains with increasing rain and storm chances Thursday and Friday, while the GFS remains void of this disturbance. We'll give a slight nod to the EURO and keep a small pop in for the Thursday period.
Temperatures by early next week will climb to above the seasonal average with morning lows in the lower 70's and afternoon highs in the lower 90s.
Regarding today, after morning lows in the upper 50's and lower 60s, we'll see afternoon highs in the upper 70's and 80's with abundant sunshine and light to variable winds.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 85 recorded at 1:25pm.
The normal daily average high is 87 and the low is 67.
Our daily records include a high of 101 from 1924. The daily record low is 52 from 1985.
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