Although there were only a few isolated showers/storms late yesterday and into the early night time hours, their slow movement produced some locally heavy rainfall as the map on the right shows, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. The presence of warmer air aloft has kept a repeat performance from taking place so far today and we should stay dry through tonight and Wednesday. After that, we will be back into a more unsettled pattern with the potential for showers/storms Wednesday night and each day after that right on through the weekend.
More about that in a minute, first things first though and that is the heat and humidity that will be rather oppressive for Wednesday. A more SW surface wind and fewer clouds should allow temperatures to reach the lower to possibly even the mid 90s. Ordinarily, a SW wind and lots of sunshine at this time of year would produce even hotter temperatures, but the recent rains have left a rather extensive rain footprint which should keep temperatures from reaching their full potential. Even so, the combination of heat and humidity will likely put the heat index up around triple digits for the first time this year so extra care is certainly advised for outdoor activities as most folks will not be accustomed to that.
Fortunately, we will get a break in temperatures as the week wears on along with increased chances of showers/storms. A frontal boundary will be sagging down into southern KS Wed night and showers/storms will be forming along that boundary and making a run at N OK during the late night hours and into Thursday morning. This boundary will then stall out across northern sections during the day with NE winds and temperatures in the 70s behind the boundary and S/SE winds and temperatures near 90 south of the boundary. That means Tulsa will be on the edge of the boundary with the potential for a wide range of temperatures.
With the front in the area, there will also be chances of showers/storms for Thursday and again on Friday as well as Saturday/Sunday. Right now, Sunday looks to have the best chance as a stronger front will be pushing through the state at that time. Also, there will the potential for some of those storms to be severe each day through the weekend with primarily a wind/hail threat the way things look right now. In addition to that, there will also be the potential for locally heavy rainfall as the 7 day QPF map on the right shows.
At least the more widespread showers/storms along with the cloud cover and a front in the area will also knock temperatures back providing some relief from the heat as we go through the weekend and into next week. The longer range guidance also suggests this unsettled pattern for the latter part of the week and through the weekend will extend well into next week.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.