Thursday Morning Update

The upper level low located across the ArkLaTex region will continue to slow down and hang out near this same area for the next 36 hours.  We have some indication of a minor retro-grade (moving back westward) Friday that would bring a slightly higher coverage of late day and early evening showers and storms to portions of eastern OK.  Our probability for today remains around 20% for the afternoon and evening, but will be near a 40% to 60% chance for Friday afternoon and evening.   

This weekend the low, or what's remaining of this feature, may be able to produce a few more scattered t-storms by late afternoon or early evening.  We don't have high confidence for a large number of storms.  This means we'll keep the chance around 30% to 40% for Saturday and about 10% for Sunday.    

Next week the pattern will begin to change.  The low level flow will return from the south this weekend into early next week.  Monday into Tuesday a few isolated showers or storms could occur to our northwest, but our better chance may occur Tuesday night into Wednesday as a complex of storms attempts a run at the OK-Kansas state line area.  The pattern will also support another complex or two impacting the area by late in the week across the northern third of the state.  This is a very common occurrence for early June.  It's way too early in the forecast process to indicate a severe weather event, and we may also have some serious capping issues (layer of warm air aloft) that may suppress thunderstorm activity across part of northern or eastern OK next week.  We're keeping our pops very low for early next week, but reserve the right to crank em up sometime next week. There will be differences in the synoptic set up when comparing GFS and EURO. 

Another result of the pattern change will be increasing temperatures, both morning lows and afternoon highs.  Our high this afternoon will remain in the mid-80s (86) with east or northeast winds.  Friday will see the lows in the mid-60s and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s with partly to mostly cloudy conditions during the afternoon and east or northeast winds at 10 mph. As the southerly winds return this weekend, morning lows will approach 70 and highs by Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s along with gusty south winds at 15 to 25 mph.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 84 recorded at 3:52pm.

The normal daily average high is 83 and the low is 63.

Our daily records include a high of 98 from 1926 and the low of 40 from 1907. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma news network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

You'll also hear our forecast on numerous Tulsa metro "Clear Channel Communication" stations including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Buzz. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV