Tuesday Morning Update

Good morning.

Once again, we're tracking another chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region.  The main upper level low is located near the high plains of Texas and will move near the Red River Valley this morning and is moving slowly east to southeast later today.  This does not mean thunderstorms will occur all day or evening, but numerous scattered storms are expected today and this evening.   Some hi-res data suggest showers and storms will develop across southeastern OK during the early morning hours with scattered showers and storms will be possible near and southeast of the Tulsa area today around the noon hour to early afternoon.  Some locations north of Tulsa may be too far north to experience activity.

This upper level low will slowly "open" and advance to our southeast by the Wednesday period.  This will result in more chances of showers and thunderstorms today, with lower probabilities Wednesday and Thursday.  The highest chances Wednesday and Thursday will be confined to the far eastern third of the state, but we'll continue to keep our chances for the Tulsa metro.  The low should be far enough southeast of the area Wednesday and Thursday to limit but not prohibit thunderstorms from the area.  The higher likelihood Wednesday through the end of the week will remain across the eastern third of the area.  The storm coverage will support a 30% chance of showers or storms. 

Temperatures will continue to slowly rise Wednesday through the end of the week with morning lows in the mid to upper 60s and afternoon highs in the mid and upper 80s. 

The weekend will feature a few daytime and early evening isolated storms across the eastern third of the state and also across southeastern Kansas.    The NAM continues to bring a disturbance out of the northern high plains dropping southeast.  This gets absorbed into the counter-clockwise flow on the top side of the open low to our south.   The data offers differing solutions regarding the coverage, but we'll keep only low chances for the weekend at this point.

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 78 recorded at 11:36am.  The normal daily average high is 82 and the low is 62.  Our daily records include a high of 94 1991. .  The daily record low is 45 from 1961 and 1907. 

We received 1.41 inches of rainfall yesterday as Tulsa International Airport Sunday, and 1.07 inches Monday.  This brings our year to date total to 8.11 inches.  The normal precip expected to date is 15.56 which leaves a deficit of -7.45 inches.  

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma news network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

You'll also hear our forecast on a few Tulsa metro "Clear Channel Radio Stations" including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Buzz. 

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV